The informal currency market in Cuba opened this Thursday seemingly calm after several weeks of high volatility.
At the start of this July 9, the dollar continues to be sold at an average of 680 CUP, a price it has maintained for the third consecutive day.
In the case of the euro, the European currency retains the 760 CUP per unit that it reached this Wednesday.
Also unchanged today is the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which remains valued at 490 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The stability observed this Thursday contrasts with the turmoil that shook the market in recent weeks.
On June 21, 2026, the dollar reached its all-time high of 695 CUP and the euro hit 800 CUP.
After that peak, the dollar corrected to 605 CUP on June 30, but the decline was short-lived.
Since July 1, the currency resumed its upward trend: 610 CUP, then 645 CUP on the fourth, 660 CUP on the fifth, 670 CUP on the sixth, until stabilizing at 680 CUP since July 7.
ElTOQUE describes this behavior as "overshooting" or currency overreaction:
"Faced with a change in expectations, be it an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify."
The same analysis points to the so-called "herd effect" as one of the driving forces behind the escalation
"People buy currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
The package of 176 measures, the most ambitious since the Special Period, includes for the first time since 1959 the authorization of private banking, private currency exchange, and a real-time digital currency market.
However, independent economists are skeptical about its actual impact.
In a historical perspective, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar in just six years: from 42 CUP in 2020 to 680 CUP this Thursday.
The analysts' conclusion is conclusive:
"As long as those conditions do not change—actual shortage of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and lack of confidence in the Cuban peso—the rate ends up rising again."
Filed under: