The informal foreign exchange market in Cuba started this Wednesday with a slight decline in the value of the euro, which dropped five pesos and is now at 760 CUP, according to data from elTOQUE on exchange rates in Cuba.
The U.S. dollar, for its part, maintains the price reached yesterday and is quoted on this July 8, for the second consecutive day, at 680 CUP, just 15 pesos shy of the 695 CUP that marked its all-time high in the informal market on June 21.
The MLC (Freely Convertible Currency), for its part, maintains its value at 490 CUP, with no changes compared to the previous day.
Exchange rate today 08/07/2026 - 8:00 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 680 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 760 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 490 CUP.
The stability of the dollar this Wednesday should not overshadow the magnitude of what has occurred in recent days.
By this Tuesday, the US dollar had accumulated eight consecutive days of increases since the end of June, when it was priced at 605 CUP.
The recovery has been steady since July 1, when the dollar was trading at 610 CUP.
In just six days, it climbed in value: 645 CUP on July 4, 660 CUP on July 5, 670 CUP on Monday, and 680 CUP this Tuesday.
Before this recovery, the dollar had dropped to 605 CUP on June 30—a correction of 90 pesos in nine days following the June peak—but that decline proved to be short-lived.
Influence of the 176 economic measures announced by the regime
The peak on June 21 had a clear origin: the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which includes for the first time since 1959 the authorization of private banking, private exchange houses, and a digital currency market.
The reaction of the informal market was immediate and disproportionate.
ElTOQUE has described this pattern as "overshooting" or exchange rate overshooting:
"Faced with a shift in expectations—whether it's an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence—the price of foreign currency surges beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify."
The same analysis warns that the subsequent correction is not definitive either
"When the market finishes absorbing the true magnitude of that change, it corrects. But the correction is never complete. The new floor is higher than the previous one."
Another factor driving the increases is the so-called "herd effect":
"People buy foreign currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see that others are buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Economists, skeptical of the reforms
Independent economists do not share the official optimism. Pedro Monreal González described the 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" on June 26, warning that "the numbers do not add up."
Pavel Vidal, from the Observatory of Currency and Finance, points to the structural irrationality of the market: "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism."
ElTOQUE summarizes the trap in which the market operates:
"As long as those conditions do not change -actual scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust in the Cuban peso- the rate will continue to rise."
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar in just six years: from 42 CUP in 2020 to 680 CUP this Tuesday.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), based on exchange rates from July 8:
1 USD = 680 CUP.
5 USD = 3,400 CUP.
10 USD = 6,800 CUP.
20 USD = 13,600 CUP.
50 USD = 34,000 CUP.
100 USD = 68,000 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro banknotes (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 760 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,800 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,600 CUP.
20 EUR = 15,200 CUP.
50 EUR = 38,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 76,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 152,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 380,000 CUP.
Filed under: