The dollar and the euro rise again this Monday in the informal Cuban market, continuing a bullish trend that shows no signs of stopping.
The dollar is being sold at 670 Cuban pesos (CUP), ten pesos more than on Sunday, while the euro reaches 760 CUP, with an increase of between ten and twenty units compared to the previous day.
This new increase consolidates six consecutive days of recovery from the recent low of 605 CUP that the dollar reached on June 30, representing a rebound of 65 CUP in just one week.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) is going against the tide and has slightly decreased to 491.10 CUP, with a drop of 1.1 pesos.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Other currencies are also experiencing upward movements: the Canadian dollar rises to 421.85 CUP (+6.04), the Mexican peso to 46.25 CUP (+0.53), and the Zelle to 637.43 CUP (+2.65).
At the rates this Monday, 100 dollars are equivalent to 67,000 CUP and 100 euros to about 76,000 CUP, figures that illustrate the gap between purchasing power in foreign currencies and the salaries in pesos that most Cubans receive.
The gap with the official rate is equally revealing: the Central Bank of Cuba sets the dollar at 585 CUP and the euro at 669.53 CUP for July 2026, far below what is paid on the street.
Exchange rate today 06/07/2026 in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 670 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to CUP according to elTOQUE: 760 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to TOQUE: 491.10 CUP.
The cycle of volatility that never ends
The current surge begins with an episode of extreme volatility triggered by the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency exchange market.
That announcement pushed the dollar to its historic high of 695 CUP and the euro to 800 CUP on June 21, unprecedented levels in both cases.
After that spike, the exchange rates corrected sharply until June 30, and since July 1, they have consistently resumed their upward trend: 610 CUP on July 1, 620 CUP on the 2nd, between 630 and 640 CUP on the 3rd, 645 CUP on Saturday, 660 CUP on Sunday, and 670 CUP this Monday.
The analysts from elTOQUE describe this pattern as a recurring phenomenon of exchange rate overreaction in Cuba since 2022: “In response to a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency surges beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify.”
When the market grasps the true magnitude of the change, it corrects, but that correction is never complete: "The new floor is higher than the previous one," they warn.
The so-called "herd effect" amplifies the increases: "People buy currencies not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
The economist Pedro Monreal González referred to the reform package as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" on June 26, warning that "the numbers don't add up".
Pavel Vidal from the Observatory of Currencies and Finance was similarly skeptical: "It will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope."
In historical perspective, the magnitude of the crisis is devastating: in 2020, the dollar was trading at 42 CUP in the informal market; by January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP; this Monday it exceeds 670 CUP.
In six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar, and elTOQUE warns that "as long as these conditions do not change —real scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust in the Cuban peso— the rate will inevitably rise again."
Filed under: