The informal currency market in Cuba started this Tuesday with mixed signals: the dollar rose by ten pesos and approached its historical record, while the euro and the MLC dipped slightly, confirming the extreme volatility that characterizes the Cuban exchange market.
The dollar is one step away from a record
The US dollar is trading this Tuesday at 680 Cuban pesos (CUP), just 15 CUP away from the 695 CUP it reached on June 21, its all-time high in the informal market.
The recovery has been sustained since July 1, when the dollar was priced at 610 CUP. In just six days, it climbed: 645 CUP on July 4, 660 CUP on July 5, 670 CUP on Monday, and 680 CUP this Tuesday.
Before this recovery, the dollar had dropped to 605 CUP on June 30—a correction of 90 pesos in nine days following the peak in June—but that decline turned out to be short-lived.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The euro drops five pesos this Tuesday and stands at 765 CUP, still far from the record of 800 CUP set on June 21, despite the fact that in recent days the European currency has also recovered after a sustained decline.
The MLC (Freely Convertible Currency) is being sold this Tuesday at 490 CUP, also showing a slight drop.
Exchange rate today 07/07/2026 - 9:00 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 680 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 765 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 490 CUP.
According to data from elTOQUE, the offers in recent hours show a notable dispersion:
- the euro fluctuates between 720 and 800 CUP.
- the dollar, between 610 and 750 CUP
- the MLC, between 450 and 500 CUP.
The trigger: The 176 economic measures
The peak on June 21 had a clear origin: the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking, private exchange houses, and a digital currency market.
The reaction of the informal market was immediate and disproportionate.
ElTOQUE has described this pattern as "overshooting" or an exchange rate overreaction:
"In the face of a shift in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the fundamental realities of the economy would justify."
The same analysis warns that the subsequent correction is not definitive either:
"When the market fully assimilates the true magnitude of that change, it corrects itself. But the correction is never complete. The new floor ends up being higher than the previous one."
Another factor that fuels the rises is the so-called "herd effect":
"People buy foreign currency not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the rise."
Economists, skeptical of the reforms
Independent economists do not share the official optimism. Pedro Monreal González described the 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" on June 26, warning that "the numbers do not add up."
Pavel Vidal, from the Observatory of Currencies and Finance, points to the structural irrationality of the market: "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism."
ElTOQUE summarizes the trap in which the market operates:
"As long as those conditions do not change - real scarcity of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust in the Cuban peso - the rate will ultimately rise again."
The Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar in just six years: from 42 CUP in 2020 to 680 CUP this Tuesday.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of this July 7:
1 USD = 680 CUP
5 USD = 3400 CUP
10 USD = 6800 CUP
20 USD = 13,600 CUP
50 USD = 34,000 CUP
100 USD = 68,000 CUP
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 765 CUP
5 EUR = 3825 CUP
10 EUR = 7650 CUP
20 EUR = 15,300 CUP
50 EUR = 38,250 CUP
100 EUR = 76,500 CUP
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