The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States marked an area of interest in the northeast Gulf of America this Wednesday, assigning it a 20% chance of developing into an organized tropical system in the next seven days, which could lead to the second named storm of the season: Bertha.
The federal agency published its Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:00 AM Eastern Time, indicating that the formation of a low-pressure area is expected over the weekend in that region.
According to the NHC, "the gradual development of the system is possible as it slowly moves northeast over the northeastern Gulf and/or near the southeastern coast of the United States early next week."
The probability of formation in the next 48 hours is virtually zero—around 0%—but the seven-day threshold stands at 20%, classified as "low" by the organization.
The meteorologist Matt Devitt, who is closely monitoring the system through his Facebook page, explained that nearly all the models shifted overnight and raised the development probabilities again, prompting the NHC to officially designate the area.
“The fluctuations in probabilities are typical in this early phase, which is why we seek consistency,” wrote Devitt, who added that the trend was sufficient for the NHC to take action.
Regarding the most likely impact, the meteorologist was straightforward: "At the very least, this will be a rain machine for Florida. There's a lot of tropical moisture in motion."
Devitt warned that the possibility of the system being named Bertha depends on its ability to overcome wind shear and dry air.
"If it can combat those factors, it would have a chance against the above-average water temperatures in the northeast Gulf. But this is by no means guaranteed," he specified.
The possible trajectories create uncertainty among the models. Devitt described the situation as "a disaster and divided," with two main options: that the system moves northeast towards the Carolinas, or that it turns west.
From the area marked by the NHC, the meteorologist believes that the system is leaning towards a northeastern trajectory.
Regarding the estimated timeline, the potential development would take place this weekend and at the beginning of the following week.
Devitt concluded his analysis with a message of reassurance: "For now, there is nothing to be alarmed about. I will continue to provide updates 24/7, without exaggerations, only the facts."
The context of the season is also relevant: Colorado State University (CSU) reduced its forecast on July 10 to just nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, which is equivalent to 40-45% of the historical average activity.
The NOAA predicts between eight and 14 named storms for the entire season.
The first system of the 2026 season was Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which became Tropical Storm Arthur and impacted Texas and Louisiana in mid-June without reaching hurricane status.
If the current system in the Gulf were to organize, it would be Bertha, the second storm of the season.
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