In mid-July 2026, with more than 240 sanctions imposed on the Cuban regime since January and an island that daily teeters on the brink of energy collapse, the question lingering among the Cuban community remains unanswered: why hasn’t Trump taken the definitive step? Three experts discussed this issue in a forum hosted by CiberCuba, led by Tania Costa, with conclusions ranging from strategic patience to frustration.
The starting point was the statement made by the head of mission of the U.S. Embassy in Havana, Mike Hammer, who stated in February of this year during an interview with the ABC newspaper in Spain, that "in 2026 we will see a historic change in Cuba" and that "the dictatorship will come to an end." Five months later, that promised change has yet to arrive, and there are doubts about whether it will occur in the hoped-for manner.
For the historian Omar Sixto we are not witnessing a regret from the U.S. “No, no, Trump has not expressed regret. In fact, even if it doesn’t seem like it, there are many signs that indicate otherwise. The problem is that he does not take the step or press the button, but the signs are there. The issue is the hesitations, and we don’t know for what reasons. There must be some.”
The researcher from the Autonomous University of Mexico, Alejandro González Acosta offered a geopolitical explanation. “I wouldn't want to be in President Trump's shoes right now, because everyone is asking for help, not just from Cuba, but also from Ukraine, Iran, and so on, and he is just one person, and the United States is just one country.”
To illustrate the complexity of expectations regarding Cuba, González Acosta referred to a historical image. "There is an old Cuban cartoon from the late 19th century that features Uncle Sam, and several Cubans appear from the island. One says annexation, another says non-intervention, another says independence, and yet another says Spanish autonomy, and the cartoon is titled 'What do the Cubans want?' I believe that a hundred years later, the situation is very similar."
For his part, historian Jorge León introduced a factor that, according to him, is often underestimated: the ego of the U.S. president. "There is an element that is not often taken into account, which is Trump's ego. He knows that solving the problem of Cuba will be a monumental achievement, placing him on a pedestal in history," he pointed out, adding that the American president "also has the historical knowledge of what Reagan accomplished, and he is on that path."
León also pointed out that the war with Iran has Trump "somewhat paralyzed" regarding Cuba, but suggested that the accumulated pressure might not require a direct intervention. "All this negotiation revolves around an internal fracture, a collapse, an accumulation of factors with international pressure that could bring down the tyranny, without the United States having to carry out a direct intervention."
Within the Trump administration itself, there are differences in opinion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocates for maximum pressure, although he expressed skepticism about the regime's willingness. "Honestly, I don't see much progress," he admitted.
Vice President JD Vance, for his part, revealed in June active diplomatic contacts between Washington and Havana to explore potential bilateral changes.
The backdrop is a devastated Cuba: blackouts of up to 25 hours and 30 consecutive hours, a projected GDP contraction between -6.5% and -7.2%, and a reduction of between 80% and 90% in fuel imports. The midterm elections in November 2026 represent the political horizon that analysts highlight as the window of opportunity for Trump to demonstrate results.
León, who declared in April that Cuba will experience a democratic transition in November, summarized the collective mood with a phrase: "I believe that silence can also be heard. I believe that yes, there are elements that are hidden beneath the rug."
Filed under: