The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could end with between two and six hurricanes, according to the updated forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which maintains the prediction of below-normal activity.
In its report published last Thursday, NOAA adjusted its forecast to between seven and 13 named storms, of which two to six could become hurricanes.
Of them, up to two could reach the major hurricane category, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
The agency now estimates a 75% probability that cyclone activity will be below normal, compared to a 20% chance of a season close to average and only a 5% likelihood of it being more active than usual.
The new forecast reinforces the scenario presented in May, when NOAA already predicted a less intense season than usual.
At that time, I was expecting between eight and 14 named storms, between three and six hurricanes, and from one to three major hurricanes.
Until August 6, only two named tropical storms had formed, Arthur and Bertha, and neither had reached hurricane strength.
Both are included in the new range of seven to 13 storms predicted for the entire season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
The relative calm observed so far does not mean that the danger has passed. The National Hurricane Center warned at the beginning of August that this month typically signals an increase in tropical activity and reminded that the climatic peak of the Atlantic season occurs around September 10.
NOAA points to El Niño as the main factor limiting the formation and strengthening of cyclones in the Atlantic.
The phenomenon appeared in the equatorial Pacific in June and increases wind shear, a condition that makes it difficult for tropical storms to organize and gain strength.
An average season in the Atlantic produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The projected figures for 2026 remain below those values.
NOAA insisted, however, that a forecast of lower activity does not eliminate the risk for areas that could be affected by a cyclone.
The agency reminded that the rains associated with tropical storms can also cause significant damage, even when the system does not become a hurricane.
The agency also clarified that its seasonal forecast measures the expected overall activity across the entire Atlantic basin and does not determine where a cyclone will make landfall.
The possible trajectories and impacts are specified in the short term through the alerts and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
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