The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami issued an official warning this Saturday, stating that despite acknowledging the unusual calm of the 2026 Atlantic season, it urges not to let down one's guard with August approaching.
"A calm start to the season doesn’t mean we can let our guard down.", the agency posted on its social media.
According to the NHC, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic is approximately 75% below normal for this point in the season, and the seven-day tropical outlook map shows no active disturbances or areas of potential development throughout the basin.
Still, the organization emphasized that August historically marks the beginning of a transition to increased cyclonic activity.
The climatological data from the U.S. NHC, based on 77 years of records from 1944 to 2020 and normalized over a 100-year period, indicates that the peak of the Atlantic season occurs around September 10, with approximately 113 active tropical storms and hurricanes on that date for every 100 seasons.
The 2026 season has been exceptionally calm so far.
The only two named storms up to the beginning of August were Arthur, which was active for less than a day between June 17 and 18, and Bertha, which formed on July 20 and made landfall two days later in Louisiana after impacting areas along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
None posed a threat to Cuba. Together, they generated an ACE index of approximately 2.6, nearly 75% below normal for that point in the season.
The main factor behind this calm is the presence of El Niño, with a 98% probability that its conditions will persist during the peak months of August, September, and October.
This phenomenon increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical cyclones to organize and intensify.
The main forecasting centers agreed from the beginning of the year that the season would be less active than usual.
The NOAA estimated in May a below-average season, with between eight and 14 named storms and a 55% chance of reduced activity. Colorado State University (CSU) revised its forecast in July to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
For Cuba in particular, the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) calculated in May a 40% likelihood that at least one hurricane would affect the island, and a 75% probability that at least one tropical storm would impact it during the season.
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