The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami issued an official warning this Saturday in which, despite acknowledging that the 2026 Atlantic season is unusually calm, urges to remain vigilant in light of the upcoming August.
"A quiet start to the season doesn't mean we can let our guard down", the organization posted on its social media.
According to the NHC, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic is approximately 75% below normal for this point in the season, and the seven-day tropical outlook map shows no active disturbances or potential development areas throughout the basin.
Nonetheless, the agency emphasized that August historically marks the beginning of a transition towards increased cyclonic activity.
The climatic data from the NHC of the United States, based on 77 years of records between 1944 and 2020 and normalized to a 100-year period, places the peak of the Atlantic season around September 10, with approximately 113 active tropical storms and hurricanes on that date for every 100 seasons.
The 2026 season has been exceptionally calm so far.
The only two named storms up until the beginning of August were Arthur, which was active for less than a day between June 17 and June 18, and Bertha, which formed on July 20 and made landfall two days later in Louisiana after affecting areas of the northern Gulf Coast.
None posed a threat to Cuba. Together, they produced an ACE index of approximately 2.6, nearly 75% below normal for that time of the season.
The main factor behind this calm is the presence of El Niño, with a 98% probability that its conditions will persist during the peak months of August, September, and October.
This phenomenon increases the vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical cyclones to organize and strengthen.
The main forecasting centers have agreed since the beginning of the year that the season would be less active than usual.
The NOAA estimated in May a season below average, with between eight and 14 named storms and a 55% chance of reduced activity. Colorado State University (CSU) revised its forecast in July to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
For Cuba in particular, the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) calculated in May a 40% chance that at least one hurricane will affect the island, and a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm will impact it during the season.
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