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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) released its official forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season 2026, which runs from June 1 to November 30, and anticipated a below-normal season with a 55% probability.
The agency estimates between 8 and 14 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes and between one and three could develop into major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5).
NOAA has a 70% confidence in those ranges. An average season records 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The main factor behind the moderate forecast is the expected development of El Niño, which tends to increase vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, making it more difficult for cyclones to form and intensify.
However, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly above normal, and the trade winds are weaker than average, factors that would act in the opposite direction and create uncertainty in the forecast.
"Although the impact of El Niño in the Atlantic basin may suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty about how each season will unfold," warned Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service. "It only takes one storm for it to be a very bad season."
The NOAA forecast generally aligns with those previously issued by other institutions.
The Colorado State University projected in April 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major ones, equivalent to 75% of an average season.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) announced on May 6 11 tropical cyclones, five hurricanes, and two of significant intensity for the entire Atlantic basin, and estimated a 40% probability that at least one hurricane will affect Cuba, slightly above the historical average of 35%.
The forecast stands in stark contrast to the 2025 season, which was exceptionally active and reached 105% of the historical average, with three Category 5 hurricanes: Erin, Humberto, and Melissa.
The hurricane Melissa made landfall in eastern Cuba on October 29, 2025, as a category 3 storm, with sustained winds of 195 km/h, and was classified as the third most destructive hurricane in Atlantic history.
The cyclone damaged more than 116,000 homes in the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, and Guantánamo, and affected over 3.5 million Cubans, according to estimates from the United Nations. Cuba has not yet finished recovering from those damages at the start of the new season.
By 2026, NOAA also announces technological improvements in its forecasting systems: for the first time, data from small unmanned drones will be integrated into the HAFS hurricane forecasting model, which could enhance the accuracy of intensity forecasts by 10%.
The NOAA forecast will be updated in August, before the historical peak of the season, which typically spans from mid-September to October.
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