A tropical wave off the western coast of Africa now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next seven days, while environmental conditions could support its gradual development over the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported this Sunday that the system has a near 0% chance of formation over the next 48 hours, but raised the likelihood of development to medium, at 40%, for the one-week period.
The tropical wave is expected to leave the west coast of Africa early this week. The environmental conditions will be favorable for gradual development later on, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of the week, as the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
A second weather discussion from the NHC clarified that the wave could emerge from Africa on Tuesday and reiterated that it has a medium probability of tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days.
Surveillance of this system has been strengthened compared to the previous day. On Saturday, the agency placed the probability of development at 30% over seven days, while the update this Sunday raises it to 40%.
The NHC is also monitoring another tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands. This system has a near 0% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next seven days.
This second tropical wave under surveillance could experience some gradual development between early and midweek as it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic, although upper-level winds in the atmosphere would be less favorable when it subsequently approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system has a 20% chance of cyclonic formation over the next seven days.
In its latest update on the hurricane season forecast for 2026 in the Atlantic, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) estimated that between two and six hurricanes could be recorded and maintained its forecast for below-normal activity.
In its report published last Thursday, NOAA adjusted its forecast to between seven and 13 named storms, of which between two and six could develop into hurricanes.
Of them, up to two could reach the category of major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
The agency now estimates a 75% probability that cyclonic activity will be below normal, compared to a 20% chance of a season near average and only a 5% likelihood that it will be more active than usual.
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