The growing disapproval among independent voters of the use of force by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) could become a vulnerable point for Republicans with less than three months until the midterm elections.
Around eight out of ten independent voters believe that ICE has used excessive force during its operations across the country, according to a survey by YouGov conducted in late July among 1,000 voters and cited by .
The survey, commissioned by the Vera Institute of Justice, was conducted shortly after ICE agents shot and killed two immigrants during traffic stops in Maine and Texas within a span of just six days in July.
The results show a significant decline in the perception of the agency among a segment of the electorate that could be decisive in November, when Republicans will attempt to maintain their narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress.
The violent incidents that have put ICE under scrutiny
The controversy over the use of force by immigration authorities did not begin with the incidents in July.
The deaths of Renée Good and Alex Pretti during federal operations in Minneapolis sparked protests and significant questioning regarding the tactics used by the agents at the beginning of the year.
Good died on January 7, while Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, died on January 24 after being shot during a confrontation with federal agents.
The controversy even led the federal government to move forward with the installation of body cameras for ICE field agents, amidst criticism regarding the use of force and the need for audiovisual records of operations.
In ICE detention centers, the use of force increased by 37% during 2025 compared to the previous year, according to data collected by The Washington Post. The records documented at least 780 incidents that included physical force, electric tasers, and chemical agents.
Criticism, however, coexists with another problem affecting the agents themselves. The administration of Donald Trump has defended the use of masks by ICE officers during certain operations, citing an increase in assaults and threats against federal officials.
Immigration continues to be a Republican stronghold
The deterioration of ICE's image does not necessarily mean that Americans have rejected the entirety of President Trump's immigration policy.
According to the polls cited by USA Today, the reduction of border crossings continues to be seen as a success by at least half of Americans, including independent voters. Republicans also maintain an advantage when asked which party would manage border security better.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) responded to the criticism by citing data from June indicating that 80% of Americans support the deportation of immigrants who are in the country illegally and have committed crimes.
This approach has been one of the central arguments of the Trump administration. ICE has regularly publicized the detentions of immigrants with criminal records, including Cuban citizens convicted of murder, manslaughter, assault, violent robbery, and drug trafficking.
Cubans are also feeling the tightening of migration policies
The intensification of ICE operations is particularly relevant to the Cuban community in the United States.
The number of Cuban migrants detained by ICE increased by 463% from October 2024 to January 2026, according to an analysis by the Cato Institute.
The immigration attorney Willy Allen has also warned that Cuban citizens with no criminal records may end up in immigration custody, as the federal government has significantly strengthened ICE's operational capacity.
At the same time, the administration prioritizes the deportation of foreigners with criminal records. In February, the Cuban regime received a flight with 170 deportees from the United States that, according to ICE, included individuals convicted of serious crimes such as murder, rape, kidnapping, and drug trafficking.
A potential electoral vulnerability
A previous YouGov survey had already found that 62% of independents believed that ICE had gone too far.
Other studies by YouGov, AP-NORC, and the Civic Health and Institutions Project also reflect limited support among independents for the way the agency is enforcing immigration laws.
An AP-NORC poll conducted after recent shootings found that 39% of adults approved of Trump's performance on immigration, down from 49% at the start of his term. Only 18% of the independents surveyed approved of ICE's actions.
Matthew Grossmann, professor of Public Policy at Michigan State University, noted that the situation represents a significant vulnerability for the Republicans, while electoral analyst Kyle Kondik pointed out that part of the immigration message that worked for the party in 2024 may have lost effectiveness due to a shift in voter sentiment.
The Republican Party, however, shows no signs of abandoning the topic.
Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, assured that his candidates will continue to defend Trump's immigration record while contrasting it with the border management of the Joe Biden administration.
The electoral scene remains open. Polls show that the cost of living, inflation, and the economy are currently higher priorities for voters than immigration.
But in tight contests, the increasing rejection of certain ICE tactics by independents could carry decisive weight in November, even as a significant portion of the electorate continues to support border control and the deportation of immigrants who have committed crimes.
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