Trump, Rubio, and what the Castro-communist regime and the Cuban people expect

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have raised the tone and, above all, the concrete measures against the Castro-communist regime to levels unseen in the last six decades during 2026. Trump has stated that the United States will not rest until the Cuban people regain their freedom, and Rubio has emphasized that Washington will use all available tools to promote political and economic changes on the Island.

The words have been accompanied by actions. On January 29, Trump signed Executive Order 14380, which declared a national emergency regarding the Cuban regime and established a mechanism to impose additional tariffs on countries that supply oil directly or indirectly to the tyranny. On May 1, he signed another decree that significantly expanded the ability to sanction officials, entities, economic sectors, and third parties that collaborate with the repressive apparatus, corruption, or certain structures of the communist state.

On August 6, the State Department announced sanctions against five entities and eight individuals linked to the acquisition of military equipment and the cooperation of the FAR with Russia and China. Rubio stated at that time that the Trump Administration would continue to employ all available tools to promote economic and political reforms in Cuba.

On May 20, the Secretary of State went even further by describing a future relationship between the United States and a "New Cuba," where citizens can own businesses, banks, newspapers, and media without depending on the Communist Party or GAESA. He also announced a U.S. offer of $100 million in food and medicine, conditional on the aid reaching the people directly through trusted institutions. Aid is already arriving through the Catholic Church.

However, his statements from August 11 have introduced an element that has caught the attention of many compatriots on the Island. Rubio expressed his conviction that, before the end of the Trump Administration in January 2029, Cuba will be on an “irreversible path toward a very different future.” He further explained that a transition does not happen overnight and reminded that the changes in Eastern Europe took years.

At this point, it is important to remember that Cubans have been fighting - valiantly and sacrificially - longer than all the successful pro-democracy movements in Eastern Europe. According to the significant report “Cuba: The Capital of Communism in the 21st Century,” published on July 20 by the Department of State, the Castro regime poses a threat to the security of the United States that is no less significant than that of the Chavista regime and the Iranian ayatollahs.

For those of us who are hoping for immediate U.S. action that would lead to the end of the regime, those words may be disheartening. They do not necessarily indicate that Washington is ruling out new decisive measures; rather, they suggest that Rubio envisions a process of pressure, weakening, and transition, and is not publicly promising quick action to remove the Communist Party from power. I am sure this was very pleasing to the ears of the Castro family, but I remind you that this is how Trump spoke days before the operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

The regime in Havana needs time; its fundamental priority is survival. From this perspective, any event that compromises resources, attention, and political will from Washington works in its favor. This is why a prolonged and exhausting war for the United States against Iran would be very convenient for Havana. It would force Washington to focus on a much larger and more dangerous scenario. Similarly, a significant defeat for the Republicans in the November legislative elections could complicate certain aspects of Trump’s agenda.

The Castro family can afford to wait; they are very good at that. However, those who cannot wait indefinitely are the Cubans who are paying a heavy price for the crisis created by tyranny. Cuba lives under oppression and extreme poverty, with blackouts lasting for days, serious difficulties in obtaining food and medicine, and a deep deterioration of basic services. Millions of people organize their survival around brief periods of electricity. The dictatorship and its allies blame the United States for the tragedy produced by their failed single-party system and centralized economy.

While the U.S. pressures the tyranny and the regime looks for ways to survive at all costs, there are human beings for whom every day, every hour, matters: elderly people dying from malnutrition and lack of medicine, children going to bed hungry, hundreds of political prisoners surviving in hellish conditions. A whole enslaved people for whom 2029 may seem like a terribly distant date.

Trump and Rubio have generated enormous expectations, are applying real pressure, and have taken actions and uttered words that no U.S. government has expressed with such clarity in a long time, which is appreciated. However, for both the Cuban people and the United States, it would be disastrous if the Castro-communist regime were to survive and emerge strengthened from the worst crisis in its history. The enemies of this great country are prepared to make significant efforts to save Castroism.

Now, whatever happens, there is a reality we cannot forget: the best way to ensure that tyranny ends and Cuba is reborn as the free, democratic, just, generous, and prosperous homeland that every good Cuban desires, is to continue fighting with great love, courage, intelligence, and unity. Paraphrasing Pope John Paul II: we cannot wait for everything to be handed to us.