The threat of the tropical system AL92 becoming a cyclone as it moves towards the Caribbean has significantly decreased this Friday, after the rains and storms associated with the wave began to lose organization in the Atlantic, a situation that currently reduces the likelihood of the system approaching Cuba with greater intensity and organization.
The National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC for its acronym in English) reported in its update this Friday that the system is entering an area with stronger winds at higher levels of the atmosphere and dry air, two factors that are hindering its development.
The chances of cyclonic formation for AL92 have fallen to 20% for both the next 48 hours and the next seven days, a clear sign that the conditions have become increasingly less favorable for its organization.
The NHC indicated that the tropical wave was located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands in its 8:00 a.m. outlook, producing gusty winds and an expansive area of rain and thunderstorms.
In a post on the official NHC account on X, meteorologists summarized that the chances of development are quickly diminishing as the system encounters increasingly hostile conditions.
This reduces the risk of AL92 significantly strengthening before approaching the Caribbean, although it is still early to completely rule out its effects on the region.
Even without developing into a tropical storm, the system can produce heavy rains and gusty winds over areas of the Lesser Antilles between the night of this Friday and Saturday.
The maritime forecast also indicates that these conditions will move toward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward Passage, between Saturday night and Monday. Subsequently, the wave could weaken as it continues westward across the Caribbean.
For Cuba, the situation is now less concerning than in previous days due to the significant decrease in the chances of cyclonic development.
However, the path of the wave still needs to be monitored, especially due to the possibility of rain and associated winds even if it never develops into a tropical cyclone.
While AL92 loses organization, another system identified as AL94 remains over the central tropical Atlantic.
This has a 30% chance of development in 48 hours and a 50% chance over the next seven days, making it the next system to monitor closely in the Atlantic basin.
The NHC believes that the conditions surrounding AL94 could favor gradual development and does not rule out the possibility of a tropical depression forming during the weekend or early next week as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
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