An article published in the Giron newspaper, the official media of Matanzas, claims that the Cuban state's margin to address inflation and the significant rise in vegetable oil prices, which exceed 3,500 pesos, is very limited.
The figure is particularly noteworthy compared to the monthly minimum wage in Cuba, which is 3,210 pesos. A liter of oil can consume the entire income of a worker in a month.
The text, signed by José Carlos Aguiar Serrano, addresses the causes behind the price escalation and contains an unusual admission in the official press.
"The state can do little or nothing to address the excessive inflation of recent months. The margin for maneuver in the current circumstances is extremely limited," writes the author.
The article also highlights a structural problem in the Cuban economy: "almost all the vegetable oil consumed in our country comes from international markets."
According to Girón, the high levels of imports are due to "the sustained decline of national production," which results in the value of the currencies used for imports, the costs associated with those operations, and fluctuations in the international market ultimately being passed on to the prices paid by consumers.
In line with the regime's usual narrative, the media also attributes some of the current difficulties to U.S. sanctions and the recent impacts on Cuban foreign trade.
The rise in the price of oil, however, had already started before the economic measures approved by the National Assembly in June. The article itself refers to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) to indicate that the product had already been becoming more expensive.
In response to public discontent, municipal and provincial governments, including that of Matanzas, have resorted to establishing "reference prices" for oil and other basic products.
The author questions the effectiveness of that policy and warns that it "has all the potential to stimulate a scarcity and an even greater rise in this and other products, just as it used to happen in the past."
It also does not present the recovery of national production as a viable short-term solution. In fact, it considers that possibility to be "almost impossible" under the current circumstances.
The diagnosis is particularly significant because it simultaneously acknowledges the dependence on imports, the deterioration of domestic production, and the limitations of administrative mechanisms to control prices.
"The solution, in any case, would lie in the support of the private sector or a shift in U.S. policy towards Cuba; both factors have extremely limited chances of materializing," concludes Aguiar Serrano.
Beyond the explanation that Girón attributes to the U.S. sanctions, the article itself reveals an old internal problem that cannot be ignored: Cuba depends on external sources to supply a basic product like oil, and the recovery of its domestic production is unfeasible.
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