An article published in the Girón newspaper, the official media of Matanzas, claims that the Cuban state's margin for tackling inflation and the significant increase in vegetable oil prices, which exceed 3,500 pesos, is very limited.
The figure is particularly significant when compared to the monthly minimum wage in Cuba, which is 3,210 pesos. One liter of oil can consume a worker's income for an entire month.
The text, signed by José Carlos Aguiar Serrano, addresses the causes behind the price escalation and contains an unusual admission in the official press.
"Little or nothing can the State do to address the rampant inflation of recent months. The room for maneuver in the current circumstances is extremely limited," the author writes.
The article also highlights a structural problem in the Cuban economy: "almost all of the vegetable oil consumed in our country comes from international markets."
According to Girón, the high levels of imports are due to "the sustained decline in national production," which causes the value of the foreign currencies used for imports, the associated costs of these operations, and fluctuations in the international market to ultimately be passed on to the prices consumers pay.
In line with the regime's usual narrative, the outlet also attributes part of the current difficulties to U.S. sanctions and recent impacts on Cuban foreign trade.
The increase in the price of oil, however, had begun prior to the economic measures approved by the National Assembly in June. The article itself refers to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) to indicate that the product had already been rising in price.
In response to the public's discontent, municipal and provincial governments, including that of Matanzas, have resorted to establishing "reference prices" for oil and other basic products.
The author questions the effectiveness of this policy and warns that it "has the potential to stimulate a shortage and an even greater increase in this and other products, just as it happened in the past."
It also does not present the recovery of national production as a viable solution in the short term. In fact, it considers that possibility to be "almost impossible" under the current circumstances.
The diagnosis is particularly significant because it simultaneously acknowledges the dependency on imports, the deterioration of domestic production, and the limitations of administrative mechanisms to control prices.
"The solution, in any case, would lie in the support of the private sector or a shift in American policy towards Cuba; both factors have very little likelihood of coming to fruition," concludes Aguiar Serrano.
Beyond the explanation that Girón attributes to the U.S. sanctions, the article itself highlights an old internal problem that cannot be ignored: Cuba depends on external sources to supply a basic product like oil, and the recovery of its national production is unfeasible.
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