The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) published on Wednesday the report "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere", which includes 12 specific recommendations for the Trump administration to confront the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The document, prepared by Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the institute, describes Cuba as "more fragile today than at any time since the Soviet collapse", with a declining economy, a population that has shrunk by nearly a quarter in four years, and without the Venezuelan oil that has sustained the regime for years.
After Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, Cuba lost its main source of crude oil.
Mexico, which had started to cover part of that deficit, reduced its shipments in response to Trump's threat of tariffs on countries that supply oil to the island, worsening the blackouts that in some areas exceed 20 hours a day.
The 12 recommendations
1. Permanent military presence in the Caribbean. The report proposes assigning dedicated forces to Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), "not drawn from other commands," to institutionalize a structural presence. In May 2026, the U.S. deployed over 1,300 Marines in the Caribbean alongside the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in Operation Southern Spear.
2. Expand the designations of terrorism. Review whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) and the military conglomerate GAESA meet the criteria to be designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The Southern Command has already identified GAESA as a threat to U.S. interests.
3. Expel the adversaries of the U.S. from Cuba. Close the Chinese espionage facilities on the island and end Russian military cooperation, eliminating the platform from which hostile powers project influence 90 miles from Florida.
4. Prevent Cuba from supporting autocrats abroad. Condition any relief from sanctions on the prior cessation of all Cuban security deployments overseas.
5. Strengthen counterintelligence within the U.S. Cuban espionage on U.S. soil "requires full attention," according to the report, in line with what was documented by the State Department in July 2026 regarding six decades of Cuban espionage.
6. Dismantle the Party's control over the economy. Dissolve GAESA and return its assets to the Cuban people. The conglomerate controls key sectors such as tourism, remittances, ports, and foreign trade. In July, the U.S. expanded sanctions against GAESA through an executive order.
7. Increase economic pressure. Expand existing sanctions and target foreign banks that keep the regime afloat, shutting down the financial avenues that allow it to survive despite the internal collapse.
8. Demand free elections. There can be no normalization of relations without monitored elections by international observers, recognition of the legal opposition, and the release of political prisoners.
9. Accountability for past abuses. Cuba must return the American fugitives it shelters, release all political prisoners, and open its historical archives.
10. Breaking the information monopoly. Develop a more agile digital effort to reach Cubans through channels that the regime cannot block, replacing traditional broadcasting models.
11. Integrate Cuba into the hemispheric security framework. The regime must cease to be part of the problem before it can receive the benefits of belonging to the regional security system.
12. Without normalization without democratic conditions. The report reiterates that any agreement must be conditioned on monitored elections, recognized legal opposition, and the release of prisoners, emphasizing that democratic guarantees are the non-negotiable core of any negotiation.
The strategic context
The report is set within the so-called "Donroe Doctrine," under which Washington has declared that it will not tolerate hostile powers establishing military, intelligence, or economic bases in the Americas.
Ford Maldonado summarized the diagnosis succinctly: "The Cuban Revolution has never been confined to the island. It is rather an international project. It has always aimed to weaken the United States, strengthen its adversaries, and export the revolution to the world."
The document arrives weeks after the Department of State released its own report on Cuba presented by Marco Rubio, which concluded that the island remains a significant national security threat. Both documents point in the same direction: maximum pressure on the regime will not only continue but will intensify.
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