The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) published the report "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere" this Wednesday, presenting 12 specific recommendations for the Trump administration to confront the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The document, prepared by Melissa Ford Maldonado, director of the Western Hemisphere Initiative of the institute, describes Cuba as “more fragile today than at any time since the Soviet collapse”, with a declining economy, a population reduced by almost a quarter in four years, and without the Venezuelan oil that supported the regime for years.
After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, Cuba lost its main source of crude oil.
Mexico, which had started to cover part of that deficit, reduced its shipments in light of Trump's threat of tariffs on countries that supply oil to the island, worsening the blackouts that in some areas exceed 20 hours a day.
The 12 recommendations
1. Permanent military presence in the Caribbean. The report suggests assigning forces dedicated to Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), “not borrowed from other commands,” to institutionalize a structural presence. In May 2026, the U.S. deployed more than 1,300 Marines in the Caribbean alongside the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz in Operation Southern Spear.
2. Expand the designations of terrorism. Review whether the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) and the military conglomerate GAESA meet the criteria to be designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The Southern Command has already identified GAESA as a threat to U.S. interests.
3. Expel adversaries of the U.S. from Cuba. Close Chinese espionage facilities on the island and terminate Russian military cooperation, eliminating the platform from which hostile powers project influence 90 miles from Florida.
4. Prevent Cuba from supporting autocrats abroad. Make any easing of sanctions contingent upon the prior cessation of all Cuban security deployments overseas.
5. Strengthen counterintelligence within the U.S. Cuban espionage on U.S. territory "requires full attention," according to the report, in line with what was documented by the State Department in July 2026 regarding six decades of Cuban espionage.
6. Dismantle the Party's control over the economy. Dissolve GAESA and return its assets to the Cuban people. The conglomerate controls key sectors such as tourism, remittances, ports, and foreign trade. In July, the U.S. expanded sanctions against GAESA through an executive order.
7. Increase economic pressure. Expand existing sanctions and target foreign banks that keep the regime afloat, shutting down the financial channels that allow it to survive despite the internal collapse.
8. Demand free elections. There can be no normalization of relations without elections monitored by international observers, recognition of the legitimate opposition, and the release of political prisoners.
9. 9. Demand accountability for past abuses. Return fugitives to the United States who are evading American justice. Release all political prisoners and open their historical archives.
10. Breaking the information monopoly. Develop a more agile digital effort to reach Cubans through channels that the regime cannot block, replacing traditional broadcasting models.
11. The regime must stop being part of the problem before it can reap the benefits of being a part of the hemispheric security system. Cuba must demonstrate that it is willing to contribute to regional security by ending its support for drug trafficking, hostile intelligence cooperation, and destabilization in the region.
12. Demand genuine democratic changes as the core of any negotiation. The report reiterates that any normalization of relations and easing of sanctions must be contingent upon holding free, fair, and internationally monitored elections, the legalization of opposition parties, the release of all political prisoners, and the restoration of an independent judiciary, emphasizing that democratic guarantees are the non-negotiable condition of any negotiation.
The strategic context
The report is framed within the so-called "Donroe Doctrine," under which Washington has declared that it will not tolerate hostile powers establishing military, intelligence, or economic bases in the Americas.
Ford Maldonado summed up the diagnosis accurately: "The Cuban Revolution has never been confined to the island. It is rather an international project. It has always aimed to weaken the United States, strengthen its adversaries, and export the revolution to the world."
The document arrives weeks after the State Department released its own report on Cuba presented by Marco Rubio, which concluded that the island continues to pose a massive national security threat. Both documents point in the same direction: maximum pressure on the regime will not only continue but will intensify.
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