The 2026 hurricane season is progressing at a slower pace than usual in the Atlantic: by the end of August, only three tropical storms have formed, and none have reached hurricane status, even though climatologically, there should have been five storms and at least two hurricanes by this time.
The Cuban meteorologist Elier Pila Fariñas analyzed this Wednesday in an article published by Cubadebate the unusual behavior of a season that seemed on the verge of activation, but remains practically calm.
August has so far only left us with Cristóbal, an "ephemeral" system that barely lasted about 24 hours.
His training initially seemed, according to Pila, "like a yawn" from a season that was just starting to wake up, but in the end "Cristóbal was left alone on the list" for the month.
The balance of the entire season is also striking. As of August 26, only three tropical storms have formed, roughly one per month.
According to the specialist, Bertha was the only one that lasted more than 24 hours, while Arthur was only active for 12 hours.
The contrast with the climate is significant: "By this time of year, we should have seen 5 tropical storms form climatically, with at least two of them becoming hurricanes," Pila explained.
However, the Atlantic is not completely inactive. Meteorologists are monitoring a low-pressure area associated with a tropical wave that could develop into the fourth cyclone of the season.
Pila noted that some models continue to focus on their development due to the "excessive heat" of the Atlantic waters, but there are factors that work against this.
"The surrounding dry air does not favor it, and while the high-altitude winds are not entirely unfavorable, we cannot say that they are conducive to its organization and development," he explained.
Other models are even less optimistic and suggest that the system could remain simply as a tropical wave or, at most, turn into an area of low pressure.
One of the reasons that has contributed to slowing down activity during this season is El Niño.
In July, Colorado State University reduced its forecast for the 2026 hurricane season for the third time, precisely due to the strengthening of that climatic phenomenon.
The institution forecasted 13 named storms in April, reduced to 11 in June and nine in July.
His latest estimate anticipated four hurricanes, of which one could reach category 3 or higher, compared to the climatological average of 14.4 storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
El Niño encourages an increase in wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, a condition that makes it difficult for systems to organize and strengthen.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reduced the chances of development of the AL96 system this Wednesday from the 70% reported on Tuesday to 60% for both 48 hours and the next seven days, lowering its formation potential from "high" to "medium."
The NHC indicated that environmental conditions could become less favorable by the weekend and may even eliminate its chances of development, although it still deems it possible for a tropical depression to form in the short term.
If it were to develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Dolly and would be the fourth named system of the season. So far, the NHC has not established an official trajectory towards Cuba, the Caribbean, or Florida.
Pila anticipates that the disturbance will continue moving westward and, after about 72 hours, will likely shift to a west-northwest motion.
That trend, if it continues, would seem to move it away from the Caribbean Sea, although the meteorologist cautioned that "there is still a lot of sea ahead."
The tranquility of this season, however, does not eliminate the risk. Cuba is currently entering the climatically most dangerous phase of the year, while the historical peak of activity in the Atlantic basin occurs around September 10th.
For now, August is set to conclude with activity levels significantly lower than usual.
Pila even joked that if the trend of the forecasts continues, the usual end-of-month cyclonic summary could almost be anticipated.
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