The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States raised this Tuesday the likelihood that a low-pressure system in the eastern tropical Atlantic will develop into a tropical cyclone, with a 70% chance in the next 48 hours.
If the system reaches the category of a named tropical storm, it would be called Dolly, the fourth name on the official Atlantic list for 2026.
The system, identified as AL96, is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, with a central pressure of 1,008 mb and maximum winds near 25 knots.
According to the weather bulletin from the NHC, the system is moving west and west-northwest over the open tropical Atlantic, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with wave heights of up to seven feet in its vicinity.
The NHC rated the probability of formation as "high" both in 48 hours and in seven days, at 70%, and noted that "the environmental conditions seem favorable for a gradual development."
However, the agency warned that those conditions "could become less favorable towards the weekend."
The specialists at the NHC are also monitoring a second system, AL95, a subtropical low pressure located hundreds of miles northeast of Bermuda, moving toward the north-northeast. Its circulation is broad and disorganized, and they assign it only a 40% chance of formation, classified as "medium."
The agency also indicated that it could briefly become a depression or tropical storm before encountering increasingly hostile conditions early on Wednesday, which "will likely end its chances of development." AL95 does not pose a threat to Cuba or the Caribbean.
As of this Tuesday, the Atlantic season of 2026 had produced only three named storms: Arthur in June, and Bertha and Cristóbal, both in mid-August. Cristóbal was the most recent: the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) issued the Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 1 on August 13, although the system dissipated in less than 48 hours without posing a threat to the Island.
There is currently no official trajectory from the NHC towards Cuba, the Caribbean, or Florida for AL96. The system remains in the open eastern Atlantic, although the agency warned that it has "the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeastern tropical Atlantic by Saturday and Sunday."
The name Dolly has significant connotations for Cuba. The hurricane Dolly of 2008 reached Category 2 before making landfall near South Padre Island, Texas, and caused intense rainfall in western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, Pinar del Río, and Havana.
The news coincidence of the day adds a unique dimension: this Tuesday, the legendary country singer Dolly Parton passed away in Nashville at the age of 80, on the same day that the NHC raised the probability of the formation of a system that could bear her name. You can read more about the death of Dolly Parton in our coverage.
Cuba is currently in the most dangerous phase of the hurricane season, which statistically sees its peak activity during the second half of August and the month of September.
Related videos:
Filed under: