The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season wrote an unprecedented chapter in meteorological history this Friday: for the first time since the start of the satellite era, the Atlantic basin reached September 11 without recording a single hurricane, surpassing the record previously held by the years 2002 and 2013.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States officially confirmed: "As of 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning, we have officially surpassed the record for the latest formation of the first hurricane during an Atlantic hurricane season in the satellite era (1966-present), previously held by Hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013)." The agency added that the Atlantic remains calm and no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the next seven days.
The figures illustrate the magnitude of the phenomenon. According to specialist Michael Lowry from Local 10, the seasonal activity measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy stands at just 4.4 units, compared to a historical average of 60.5 units for this same date: "the lowest level of any hurricane season recorded to date in modern history." In a normal season, eight named storms and three hurricanes would have already formed; this year, only five tropical storms were recorded: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
The Niño, the main protagonist
The main reason for this unprecedented calm is the phenomenon El Niño, which in 2026 is set to become one of the most intense since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has described this episode as potentially "historic" and estimates that it will surpass in intensity all events recorded since that year.
The mechanism is precise: El Niño disrupts wind patterns in the upper layers of the atmosphere over the Atlantic, which "increases wind shear, that is, changes in the speed and direction of winds at different altitudes," explained BBC weather presenter Simon King. This shear disorganizes storms and prevents them from intensifying. The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak intensity in November or December.
In addition, the Sahara dust: over the past week, a vast layer of dry air transported from the African desert has traveled thousands of kilometers across the Atlantic, further hindering any cyclonic development.
While the Atlantic remains unusually calm, the Eastern Pacific is experiencing an intense season: 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, a number close to that of a normal full season, reported the BBC.
Cuba: relative relief, but ongoing alert
For Cuba, the Atlantic record comes at a time of particular vulnerability. The island is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, which in October 2025 affected more than 2.7 million Cubans in the eastern part of the country, damaging over 60,000 homes, 1,552 educational centers, and 461 health facilities.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) forecasted in May a less active season than usual, but maintained a 40% probability that at least one hurricane would affect the island and a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm would do so.
The NHC warned that the current calm does not guarantee a tranquil ending: "It is important to remember that approximately half of the normal activity of a season occurs after today. In fact, there has never been a season in the satellite era without the formation of at least two hurricanes. Years with a late start can still produce hurricane impacts, so stay prepared." The hurricane season in the Atlantic ends on November 30.
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