The Atlantic hurricane season of 2026 wrote an unprecedented chapter in meteorological history this Friday: for the first time since the advent of the satellite era, the Atlantic basin reached September 11 without having recorded a single hurricane, breaking the record previously held by 2002 and 2013.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States officially confirmed: "At 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning, we officially surpassed the satellite era record (1966-present) for the latest formation of the first hurricane during an Atlantic hurricane season, previously held by hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013)."
The agency added that the Atlantic remains calm and that no tropical cyclones are expected to form in the next seven days.
According to meteorologist Michael Lowry from Local 10, the seasonal activity measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy stands at just 4.4 units, compared to a historical average of 60.5 units for this same date. «The lowest level of any hurricane season recorded to date in modern history», he emphasized. In a normal season, eight named storms and three hurricanes would typically have formed; this year, only five tropical storms have been recorded: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
The NHC warned, however, that the current calm does not guarantee a peaceful ending: "It is important to remember that approximately half of the normal activity of a season occurs after today. In fact, there has never been a season in the satellite era without the formation of at least two hurricanes. Years with a late start can still produce hurricane impacts, so stay prepared." The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
The Niño, the main protagonist
The main factor behind this unprecedented calm is the phenomenon El Niño, which in 2026 is on track to become one of the strongest since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has labeled this episode as potentially "historic" and estimates that it will surpass in intensity all recorded events since that year.
The mechanism is precise: El Niño alters the wind patterns in the upper layers of the atmosphere over the Atlantic, which "increases wind shear, that is, the changes in speed and direction of winds at different heights," explained the weather presenter from the BBC, Simon King. This shear disrupts storms and prevents them from intensifying. The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak intensity in November or December.
In addition to this, Saharan dust has also contributed: during the past week, a vast layer of dry air carried from the African desert has traveled thousands of kilometers over the Atlantic, making any cyclonic development even more challenging.
While the Atlantic remains unusually calm, the eastern Pacific is experiencing a vigorous season: 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, a figure close to that of a typical full season, reported the BBC.
Cuba: relative relief, but alert remains
For Cuba, the Atlantic record comes at a time of particular vulnerability. The island is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, which in October 2025 affected more than 2.7 million Cubans in the eastern part of the country, damaging over 60,000 homes, 1,552 educational centers, and 461 health facilities.
The Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) forecasted in May a less active season than usual, but maintained a 40% probability that at least one hurricane will affect the island and a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm will do so.
Related videos:
Filed under: