The Harvard Working Group's report on the Future of Cuba does not only diagnose the economic, social, and political deterioration of the island. It also seeks to answer a much more complex question: how should Cuba be organized after a democratic transition?
The long-term proposal involves building a democratic and plural political system accompanied by a "social market economy", with various forms of ownership, explicitly including private property.
The document, published on September 10 after six months of work initiated by the Cuba Studies Program and the Afro-Latin American Research Institute at Harvard University, also proposes a new Constituent Assembly, a profound transformation of the economic model, and the incorporation of the diaspora as a fundamental actor in national reconstruction.
Its promoters caution that it is a "living document, under construction," subject to consultations and modifications, and that the contributions from its participants are individual and do not represent the positions of the institutions to which they belong.
A new Constituent Assembly
The political horizon outlined in the report goes far beyond merely introducing reforms in the current structures.
"In the medium and long term, Cuba will require a new constitutional assembly that serves as a space for a national debate that has been postponed for decades," the authors assert.
The goal would be to establish the foundations of a "democratic and plural system".
That process would come after an initial phase in which, according to the roadmap presented by the Working Group, all political prisoners should be released, several repressive laws repealed, and rights to freedom of expression, protest, and movement guaranteed.
The Constituent Assembly would therefore be a subsequent stage aimed at constructing a new political, legal, and institutional framework for the country.
A "social market economy"
The political transformation would have its economic equivalent.
The Working Group shares the goal proposed by Cuban economists to build a "social market economy" that generates prosperity and allows for equitable distribution among the various sectors of the population and regions of the country.
The proposal represents a substantial change from the current socialist model: the new legislation should guarantee different forms of property, including private.
The report specifically identifies the existing private sector as one of the assets with which Cuba could begin its reconstruction.
According to the document, that sector already employs nearly one-third of the workforce in the country and has managed to expand despite regulatory barriers, logistical challenges, and an extremely adverse economic environment.
For the authors, the thousands of private companies that have emerged in recent years represent a reserve of entrepreneurial capacity that could play a decisive role in the recovery.
Liberalize the land and produce food
Agriculture emerges among the priorities.
The report proposes to liberalize the legal framework for land use for productive purposes and to encourage both the private sector and investors to increase food production and marketing.
The recommendation addresses the agricultural decline that the document itself describes.
Between 2019 and 2024, Cuban agricultural production declined by 58%. Looking at specific products from 2017 to 2024, the decrease was 97% in pork, 75% in rice, 80% in beans, 56% in milk, 69% in vegetables, and 46% in root vegetables.
Cuba currently imports over 70% of the food it consumes, according to figures collected by the Working Group.
The economic reconstruction proposed in the report would therefore involve changing the rules that have conditioned agricultural production for decades and making food security a priority for investment.
The diaspora as capital, knowledge, and economic power
One of the most significant conceptual changes in the document is the shift away from viewing Cubans living abroad primarily as providers of remittances.
"Cuba is a transnational nation," states the report, which includes both residents on the island and the diaspora within that national community.
The authors believe that Cubans abroad could provide capital, knowledge, professional networks, and business experience to reactivate existing capabilities in sectors such as tourism, the pharmaceutical industry, biotechnology, and food production.
The report highlights that many private Cuban businesses have already grown thanks to familial and professional relationships with entrepreneurs and investors from the diaspora.
But the role proposed for emigrants would be significantly greater.
The diaspora could also use its influence to promote the liberalization of trade and credit policies of the United States toward Cuba and to secure economic resources for reconstruction.
Cuba returns to the IMF, World Bank, and IDB
The Task Force also believes that a transforming Cuba should rejoin the major international financial institutions.
The document explicitly mentions the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF).
Access to these institutions would allow for obtaining resources to rebuild services and infrastructures that are currently in critical condition.
Among the priorities are the electrical system, hospitals, healthcare services, education, the construction and repair of housing, transportation, and road infrastructure.
The authors caution, however, that economic opening should not lead to a reconstruction that exclusively benefits those who already have access to foreign currency and capital.
"There can be no normalization without equity and inclusion," states the document.
The difficult problem of confiscated properties
The transformation of economic relations with the United States would also require addressing one of the outstanding issues since the early years of the Revolution: the confiscated properties.
The report proposes to establish ยซtransparent and internationally recognized proceduresยป to address those claims.
It acknowledges that this is a difficult problem that must be resolved by considering both the interests of Cubans living in the diaspora and the realities of those currently residing on the island.
The document envisions that the diaspora could eventually contribute to the repeal of the Helms-Burton Act, which since 1996 significantly restricts the powers of a U.S. president to independently normalize economic relations with Cuba.
Private capital also for hospitals and universities
The proposal does not reserve private initiative solely for business activities.
The Working Group proposes to legalize and promote non-profit private associations that can support museums, libraries, universities, schools, hospitals, and other service centers.
"The report states, 'Private philanthropy, regulated with transparency and benefiting from tax concessions, must be mobilized as an important actor in the reconstruction of the country.'"
The idea involves introducing private and philanthropic funding sources into institutions that have fundamentally relied on the State for decades.
A simultaneous political and economic transformation
The model described by the Working Group does not simply propose replacing state planning with an unrestricted market.
His proposal combines representative democracy, political pluralism, private property, market, social protection, and explicit policies for reducing inequalities.
The new institutional framework should also pay specific attention to racism and racial inequality. The authors reference organizations and affirmative action policies developed in other Latin American countries, particularly Brazil.
All of this is part of a scenario that the report acknowledges is difficult to construct.
To reach that Cuba, the Working Group asserts, the participation of actors with deeply opposing positions would be necessary: the island's authorities, the opposition, civil society, the diaspora, the United States, and the international community.
The proposal, however, quite clearly establishes the destination that this process should lead to: a democratic and plural Cuba, with private property and a social market economy, reconnected with international financial institutions and in which the millions of Cubans in the diaspora actively participate in the reconstruction of the country.
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