An unusual deployment of surveillance aircraft from the United States Navy off the Mexican coast of the Gulf of Mexico has been ongoing for at least nine months and may be linked to tracking vessels suspected of transporting oil to Cuba, according to a private maritime intelligence report.
An article published by El Sol de México reports the findings of Ehrlich Maritime Security, a specialized firm that documented in its report Mexico's Maritime Domain Dispatch (M2D2) from August, marking the ninth consecutive month of U.S. flights over Yucatán, Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz.
Among the detected aircraft are the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, used for maritime patrol, intelligence, surveillance, and anti-submarine warfare, and the MQ-4C Triton, a high-endurance drone designed for maritime surveillance missions.
Analysts consider it unlikely that the deployment is primarily related to anti-drug operations.
"The Bay of Campeche and the Yucatán Channel do not constitute a primary corridor for maritime drug trafficking compared to the approach routes of the Eastern Pacific," the report notes.
The firm describes the pattern as a "geographic anomaly" and suggests that the missions could be aimed, "at least in part, at locating and tracking specific cargo ships and oil tankers suspected of engaging in irregular activities or subject to sanctions."
No authority from the United States or Mexico has confirmed that the flights are aimed at monitoring potential fuel shipments destined for Cuba.
The Mexican Navy publicly acknowledged the flight of a U.S. drone over Gulf waters on July 11, but according to the report, neither that institution nor the Secretary of National Defense has explained the purpose of these missions or the existence of potential coordination mechanisms with Washington.
The hypothesis about Cuba gains relevance due to the increasing U.S. pressure on the supply of oil to the island.
At the beginning of 2026, the government of Donald Trump pressured the Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum to reduce fuel shipments to Havana, and Mexico halted a scheduled oil shipment to Cuba.
The subsequent data shows a significant decrease. According to reports from Pemex to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), supplies dropped from an average of 15,000 barrels per day of crude oil in 2025 to about 900 barrels per day of refined petroleum products during the first quarter of 2026, with no crude oil exports.
The company used by Pemex as an intermediary in these operations has also experienced successive name changes. The former Gasolinas Bienestar was renamed Servicios Logísticos Integrales Mumiya and later Servicios Logísticos y Recursos Estratégicos, according to documents from the Public Registry of Commerce cited by El Financiero.
Washington has also intensified since May the sanctions against entities linked to the Cuban energy sector, including CUPET, COREYDAN, ENETEC, CEINPET, ENERSA, and EINARBO, and has warned about the risk of sanctions for foreign companies that continue certain operations with sanctioned entities.
Maritime surveillance becomes particularly significant for Cuba amid a profound energy crisis, characterized by prolonged blackouts and a significant reduction in its traditional fuel supply sources.
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