An unusual deployment of U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft off the Mexican Gulf Coast has been ongoing for at least nine months and may be linked to tracking vessels suspected of transporting oil to Cuba, according to a private maritime intelligence report.
An article published by El Sol de México outlines the conclusions of Ehrlich Maritime Security, a specialized firm that documented in its report Mexico's Maritime Domain Dispatch (M2D2) from August, marking the ninth consecutive month of U.S. flights over Yucatán, Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz.
Among the detected aircraft are the Boeing P-8 Poseidon, used for maritime patrol, intelligence, surveillance, and anti-submarine warfare, and the MQ-4C Triton, a high-endurance drone designed for maritime surveillance missions.
Analysts consider it unlikely that the deployment is primarily related to anti-drug operations.
"The Bay of Campeche and the Yucatán Channel do not constitute a primary corridor for maritime drug trafficking compared to the approach routes of the eastern Pacific," the report states.
The firm describes the pattern as a "geographical anomaly" and suggests that the missions could be aimed, "at least in part, at locating and tracking specific cargo ships and tankers suspected of engaging in irregular activities or being subject to sanctions."
No authority from the United States or Mexico has confirmed that the flights are aimed at monitoring potential fuel shipments destined for Cuba.
The Mexican Navy publicly acknowledged the flight of a U.S. drone over Gulf waters on July 11, but according to reports, neither this institution nor the Ministry of National Defense has explained the purpose of these missions or the existence of possible coordination mechanisms with Washington.
The hypothesis about Cuba gains relevance due to the increasing U.S. pressure on the oil supply to the island.
In early 2026, the government of Donald Trump pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to reduce fuel shipments to Havana, and Mexico halted a scheduled oil shipment to Cuba.
The following data shows a significant reduction. According to reports from Pemex to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), supplies dropped from an average of 15,000 barrels per day of crude oil in 2025 to about 900 barrels per day of refined petroleum products during the first quarter of 2026, with no crude oil exports.
The company used by Pemex as an intermediary in these operations has also undergone successive name changes. The former Gasolinas Bienestar was renamed Servicios Logísticos Integrales Mumiya and later Servicios Logísticos y Recursos Estratégicos, according to documents from the Public Registry of Commerce cited by El Financiero.
Washington has also intensified since May the sanctions against entities linked to the Cuban energy sector, including CUPET, COREYDAN, ENETEC, CEINPET, ENERSA, and EINARBO, and has warned about the exposure to sanctions for foreign companies that maintain certain operations with sanctioned entities.
Maritime surveillance takes on special significance for Cuba amid a deep energy crisis, marked by prolonged blackouts and a sharp reduction in its traditional fuel supply sources.
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