The 2026 hurricane season continues to create an extraordinary situation in the Atlantic: as of Monday, September 21, none of the six tropical storms that have formed so far have managed to reach hurricane status.
Meteorologist Matt Devitt highlighted this Monday the exceptional duration of this calm period and stated in a Facebook post that one must go back to 1914 to find a season that extended this far in the calendar without hurricanes.
"The last time we reached this far into the season with zero hurricanes in the Atlantic was during World War I, in 1914. I have never seen anything like it," wrote Devitt.
The specialist attributed this situation "largely to the powerful El Niño and the lack of instability in the Atlantic," and posed an even more striking question: "Will we end the season without a hurricane? Let's keep the streak going for as long as we can."
The records from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirm that as of this Monday, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay have formed, and all six have remained at tropical storm status.
The situation is particularly unusual when compared to the climate.
According to the NHC, in an average season the first hurricane typically appears between early and mid-August and, by September 19, normally two major hurricanes have already formed.
The precedent from 1914 is also exceptional in itself: the historical archives of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States (NOAA) show that year ended with only one tropical storm and no hurricanes, making it still considered the calmest tropical cyclone season recorded in the Atlantic basin.
The calm of 2026 had already made history days earlier.
On September 11, the Atlantic broke the satellite era record for the latest formation of the first hurricane in a season, surpassing the previous records set in 2002 and 2013.
El Niño appears to be one of the main factors behind the low activity.
NOAA explains that this phenomenon tends to increase the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, a condition that makes it difficult for storms to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.
Due to the intensity of El Niño, NOAA revised its forecast in August and raised the probability to 75% that 2026 will end with a below-normal season.
The agency forecasts between seven and 13 named storms, of which two to six could develop into hurricanes, and up to two could reach major intensity.
The absence of hurricanes had also caught the attention of Cuban meteorologists since August, when experts explained why the Atlantic was much quieter than usual, despite being in the climatologically most active period of the year.
However, the calm observed so far does not mean that the risk has ended.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30, so there is still time for more intense systems to develop.
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