The Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed this Monday that Cuba is "about to collapse" and went further: he declared that the island has "already collapsed", that it lacks a functioning economy, and that the only real way out involves a transition that ensures simultaneous political and economic freedoms.
"The problem that Cuba currently faces is that it is a failed state in every sense of the word," Rubio stated in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. "They may have a government capable of imprisoning and killing people, but it is not a functional government nor a functional country. It simply is not."
The head of U.S. diplomacy described the Cuban economy as a system designed to enrich a select few: “There is no Cuban economy that benefits the Cuban people. Everything that had the potential to generate money in Cuba was controlled by the military and the Communist Party to line the pockets of a handful of individuals at the expense of the entire country.”
As evidence of the collapse, Rubio cited the massive exodus: "Do you know that since 2021, about 20% of the population of Cuba has left the country? They have done so because it is a failure, a complete failure."
Official Cuban data confirms a decline in the population from 11.18 million at the end of 2021 to 10.05 million at the end of 2023, while independent estimates place the total outflow between 1.5 and 1.79 million people between 2021 and 2024.
Regarding the way out of the crisis, Rubio was explicit about the conditions Washington demands: «There cannot be economic freedom in Cuba if there is not first political freedom. Both must happen at the same time. This will require a transition period».
The Secretary of State indicated that the Trump administration's preference is a diplomatic solution that places Cuba on an "irreversible path of positive change," but he issued a direct warning to those within the regime who rely on inaction: "Those who continue to chant revolutionary slogans believe they can wait out this administration without doing anything or changing anything. They are mistaken and will learn their lesson the hard way if they do not correct course."
Rubio also drew a red line regarding security: while Donald Trump is president, the United States "will never allow Cuba to become a base of operations against American interests nor to pose a threat to national security."
The statements made on Monday are part of a gradual escalation of pressure on Havana throughout 2026.
Last week, Trump had described Cuba as a "failed state" before the UN General Assembly, and Rubio had stated in New York that the island has a "golden opportunity" to move towards a better future.
In August, Rubio himself warned that change in Cuba will not happen immediately. "You can't have something in place for 70 years, that takes root, and think that overnight you can just uproot everything and put something new in the ground. There is a transition that must occur and a process to get there", said the Secretary of State.
In the same interview, Rubio briefly addressed the situation in Venezuela, where Washington's focus is on achieving fair and free elections: "We are working very hard with the 2015 National Assembly to establish the necessary conditions to hold free and fair elections as soon as possible," he said, while acknowledging that the country has been plagued by 25 to 30 years of corruption and mismanagement.
The concept of democratic transition —simultaneous in both politics and economics, and irreversible— thus consolidates itself as the central axis of the Trump administration's policy towards Cuba, with no signs that Washington is willing to compromise on this point in exchange for partial gestures from the regime.
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