The Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed on Monday the idea that Cuba is "about to collapse" and went further: he declared that "it has already collapsed", that it lacks a functional economy, and the only real solution involves a transition that guarantees simultaneous political and economic freedoms.
"The problem that Cuba currently has is that it is a failed state in every sense of the word," Rubio said in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. "They may have a government capable of imprisoning and killing people, but it is not a functional government nor a functional country. It simply is not."
The head of U.S. diplomacy described the Cuban economy as a system designed to enrich a few: “There is no Cuban economy that benefits the Cuban people. Everything that had the potential to generate money in Cuba was controlled by the military and the Communist Party to fill the pockets of a handful of individuals at the expense of the entire country.”
As evidence of the collapse, Rubio cited the massive exodus: "Do you know that since 2021, nearly 20% of the population of Cuba has left the country? They have left because it is a failure, a complete failure."
Official data confirms a decrease in the population from 11.18 million at the end of 2021 to 10.05 million at the end of 2023, while independent estimates place the total exit between 1.5 and 1.79 million people between 2021 and 2024.
Regarding the way out of the crisis, Rubio was explicit about the conditions that Washington demands: «There cannot be economic freedom in Cuba if there is not first political freedom. Both must occur at the same time. This will require a period of transition».
The Secretary of State noted that the preference of the Trump administration is a diplomatic solution that places Cuba on an "irreversible path of positive change," but he issued a direct warning to those within the regime who bet on inaction: "Those who continue chanting revolutionary slogans believe they can wait for this administration to pass without doing anything or changing anything. They are mistaken and will learn the lesson the hard way if they do not make corrections."
Rubio also drew a red line regarding security: as long as Donald Trump is president, the United States "will never allow Cuba to become a base of operations against American interests nor to pose a threat to national security."
The statements made on Monday are part of a progressive escalation of pressure on Havana throughout 2026.
Last week, Trump described Cuba as a "failed state" before the UN General Assembly, and Rubio stated in New York that the island has a "golden opportunity" to move towards a better future.
In August, Rubio himself warned that change in Cuba will not come immediately. "You can't have something in place for 70 years, taking root, and think that overnight you're going to uproot it all and plant something new in the ground. There is a transition that must occur and a process to get there," stated the Secretary of State.
In an interview with Fox News this Monday, Rubio also briefly addressed the situation in Venezuela, where Washington's focus is on achieving free and fair elections. "We are working very hard with the National Assembly of 2015 to establish the necessary conditions to hold free and fair elections as soon as possible," he said, while acknowledging that the country has been plagued by 25 to 30 years of corruption and mismanagement.
The concept of democratic transition —simultaneous in both political and economic terms, and irreversible— thus consolidates itself as the central focus of the Trump administration's policy towards Cuba, with no signs that Washington is willing to compromise on this point in exchange for partial gestures from the regime.
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