Almost one in three Cubans who took part in the large wave of migration to the United States between 2021 and 2024 headed to the Miami metropolitan area, primarily attracted by the extensive network of family members and compatriots who have settled in South Florida for decades.
The information appears in a study presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference, conducted by Jennifer Hunt from Rutgers University; Pia Orrenius from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; and Madeline Zavodny from the University of North Florida.
Researchers indicate that approximately half of the Cubans from this wave headed to Florida, with nearly a third arriving in Miami, a pattern attributed to the presence of the island's historic diaspora in that area.
In fact, the authors believe that community networks had such an impact on the choice of destination that the location decisions of Cubans were largely determined by these connections rather than by the economic conditions of each metropolitan area.
The data used in the research also allows for an assessment of Cuba's significance within the phenomenon. Between July 2021 and June 2024, records from the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) analyzed by the authors account for 542,083 Cubans who were released or authorized to enter the United States within the categories considered by the study.
Cuba accounted for 12.4% of the more than 4.3 million records included in that data, becoming the second most populous country of origin, just behind Venezuela, which had 678,228 people and 15.5%.
Miami, the epicenter of the migration wave
In absolute terms, New York was the metropolitan area that received the highest volume of migrants from the wave, with nearly 575,000 cases recorded with the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR).
Miami ranked second, followed by Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, and Houston.
Researchers specifically explain the role of Miami as a destination for migrants coming from nearby countries south of Florida, or with large communities already established there, particularly Cuba and Haiti.
Taking into account the population size of each city, Miami moves to first place.
The metropolitan area recorded more than 48 cases of EOIR per 1,000 inhabitants, the highest concentration among the 164 large metropolitan areas analyzed. It was followed by Orlando, Salt Lake City, and New York.
The figure does not mean that 48 out of every 1,000 residents of Miami were Cuban. The indicator includes the entire group of studied migrants and utilizes immigration court records as an approximation to determine where they settled.
The authors also note that a case of EOIR does not necessarily equate to a migrant: a file can include several people, as is the case with families, while the same person or family may appear in more than one case.
An unprecedented exit from Cuba
The period studied coincides with one of the largest exoduses in Cuba's recent history.
Estimates from Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos indicated that 1.79 million people left Cuba between 2022 and 2023, a demographic loss far greater than those caused by previous major migration crises.
The calculation took into account, among other data, 738,680 arrivals of Cubans to the United States between October 2021 and April 2024, through various migration routes, as well as estimates of those who headed to other countries.
The departure has particularly impacted the working-age population. CiberCuba has also reported estimates indicating that around 800,000 Cuban emigrants were between the ages of 15 and 59, a phenomenon that exacerbates the demographic aging and the reduction of the island's workforce.
Cuban official statistics also acknowledge the magnitude of the exodus, although they present figures lower than some independent estimates. The National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) reported that 251,221 people emigrated from Cuba in 2024, a year in which the actual population of the country decreased by 307,961 inhabitants.
Albizu-Campos has calculated an even greater impact. A subsequent study indicated that 545,011 people left Cuba during 2024 and estimated that the resident population had decreased to just over eight million inhabitants.
A wave of at least 6.5 million migrants
The Cuban phenomenon was part of a much larger migratory transformation in the United States.
The authors of the new study estimate that at least 6.5 million migrants entered the country outside the usual legal channels between 2021 and 2024, a figure that is at least equivalent to 2% of the U.S. population in 2021.
This does not mean that the 6.5 million entered illegally. Investigators explain that many were admitted through humanitarian programs or after receiving a notice to appear before an immigration court. Some were later able to apply for work permits through asylum requests or programs that included employment authorization.
What impact did it have on the economy?
The study also examines what happened in the cities that welcomed that population and concludes that the U.S. economy largely managed to absorb an influx of exceptional proportions.
For the average metropolitan area, researchers estimate that the influx increased the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 1.5% between 2021 and 2024. They also calculate that each migrant from the influx was associated with approximately 0.4 additional jobs, with particularly significant increases in sectors such as leisure and hospitality, as well as professional and business services.
The results regarding salaries are more complex. The study finds evidence that the overall average salary may have decreased, although this estimate has weak statistical significance and is partially influenced by changes in the composition of the workforce.
In contrast, the authors estimate that the wages of workers born in the United States increased by about 0.9% as a result of the influx, while their employment rate did not experience changes attributable to it.
The effect also extended to the real estate market. Rents increased by between 1.4% and 1.6%, although researchers estimate that, on average, the rise in labor income for workers born in the United States offset that increase.
These estimates pertain to the overall metropolitan areas studied and do not imply that Cubans specifically caused these effects in Miami.
Miami dominates, but other destinations are starting to emerge
The large Cuban concentration in Miami during 2021-2024 confirms the appeal that South Florida continues to have for those leaving the island.
However, the map of the Cuban diaspora is beginning to diversify. More and more Cubans are choosing Houston instead of Miami, drawn by factors such as a lower cost of living and the growth of Cuban and Latino communities outside of Florida.
The new study helps to outline the starting point for this potential redistribution: during the large migration wave from 2021 to 2024, approximately half of Cubans headed to Florida, and nearly one in three chose Miami, solidifying the city as the primary hub of the Cuban diaspora in the United States.
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