Extreme blackouts have ceased to be an anomaly in Cuba and have turned into a constant statistic of the National Electric System (SEN): at least 23 days in the past month experienced a maximum actual impact exceeding 2,000 megawatts (MW).
An analysis by CiberCuba of the daily reports from the electrical system between September 3 and October 2 shows that there were comparable closing figures on 28 of the 30 days studied. Of these, 23 surpassed the 2,000 MW threshold.
This means that 82.1% of the days with a comparable real data ended with an impact exceeding that level, a magnitude that just a few years ago would have been considered extraordinary.
The average maximum impact over those 28 days was approximately 2.093 MW.
To prepare the calculation, CiberCuba exclusively used reported maximum actual impact figures as of the close of each day, not the forecasts for peak hours. The data can be accessed in the SEN report file from the CiberCuba Blackout Observatory, compiled from reports by the Electric Union, the Ministry of Energy and Mines, and provincial electric companies.
The official reference source remains the daily report on the status of the SEN published by the Electric Union.
Ten consecutive days above 2,000 MW
The most revealing data is not an isolated record, but the continuity.
Between September 3 and 12, Cuba experienced ten consecutive days with over 2,000 MW of maximum impact: 2,259 MW on the 3rd; 2,272 MW on the 4th; 2,396 MW on the 5th; 2,223 MW on the 6th; 2,120 MW on the 7th; 2,106 MW on the 8th; 2,165 MW on the 9th; 2,267 MW on the 10th; 2,001 MW on the 11th, and 2,032 MW on the 12th.
The largest impact during the analyzed period occurred on September 5, with 2,396 MW.
After dropping to 1,987 MW on September 13 and 1,884 MW on the 14th, the system immediately returned to extreme levels: 2,168 MW on the 15th, 2,166 MW on the 16th, and 2,051 MW on the 17th.
The repetition confirms a trend that CiberCuba had already warned about in mid-September, when outages exceeding 2,000 MW began to be described as part of the country's new electrical normality.
Two days that cannot be compared: the SEN collapsed again
The days of September 18 and 19 were not included in the percentage calculation because there is no maximum impact figure for those days due to deficit that can be directly compared with the others.
The reason was not an improvement.
The September 18th, the SEN experienced a total disconnection at 1:57 PM, after which a complex recovery process began. The next day, the system continued to rebuild, and the national interconnection was fully restored by nightfall.
Accounting for those two dates as days with less than 2,000 MW would distort the statistics, because during part of that period the issue was no longer simply how much consumption needed to be reduced due to a generation deficit: the national electrical grid had lost its interconnection.
After the collapse, the 2,000 MW returned immediately
Once the system was rebuilt, there was no sustained recovery.
The actual maximum impact reached 2.037 MW on September 20, 2.025 MW on the 21st, and returned to around that level on the 22nd.
On September 23, it rose to 2,170 MW and the following day reached 2,155 MW.
September 25 was one of the few exceptions, with 1,968 MW. However, the following day it returned to 2,044 MW, and on the 27th it reached 2,037 MW again.
On September 28, the lowest value of the entire analyzed period was recorded: 1.858 MW. The relative improvement was short-lived. On the 29th, the indicator returned to 2.067 MW.
On September 30, it closed at 1,940 MW, but October started again above the threshold: 2,059 MW on October 1 and 2,130 MW on the 2nd.
Only five days remained below 2,000 MW
Among the 28 days with comparable closing figures, only five recorded values below 2,000 MW: September 13, with 1,987 MW; the 14th, with 1,884 MW; the 25th, with 1,968 MW; the 28th, with 1,858 MW; and September 30, with 1,940 MW.
The other 23 sessions surpassed the 2,000 MW mark.
Even when considering the full 30 days as a baseline —including September 18 and 19, for which there is no comparable data— it can be stated that at least 76.7% of the days during the period confirmed exceeded 2,000 MW.
What does a 2,000 MW impact really mean?
The "affectation" does not represent generated energy or an abstract figure of deficit. It is power that the system cannot supply to consumers due to insufficient capacity, which is why demand must be reduced through blackouts.
Official reports indicate a persistent combination of breakdowns at thermal power plants, units under maintenance, limitations in thermal generation, and distributed generation plants halted due to lack of fuel.
For example, on September 18, UNE itself reported 114 distributed generation plants out of service due to lack of fuel, amounting to 926 MW. When adding the barges and fuel plants also unavailable for that reason, the total reached 1,242 MW, while thermal limitations contributed an additional 455 MW.
The new solar parks have increased their output during sunny hours, but this increase does not resolve the structural deficit that becomes evident again as photovoltaic production falls and nighttime demand rises.
The extreme becomes routine
Speaking of a "normalization" of extreme blackouts does not mean that the Cuban electrical system is becoming normal.
It means exactly the opposite: levels of impact that should represent an exceptional situation have become statistically common.
During the studied period, the average maximum impact exceeded 2,000 MW, with ten consecutive days above that threshold, and amidst that sequence, the country once again experienced a total disconnection from the National Electric System (SEN).
The beginning of October does not yet indicate a change in trend. After the 2,130 MW recorded on October 2, the report for the 3rd again projected a scenario of over 2,000 MW for peak demand hours.
In Cuba, the electrical problem can no longer be measured solely by the existence of blackouts. The extent of the outages reveals a much deeper deterioration: the system has made disruptions exceeding 2,000 MW a recurring part of its daily operation.
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