Less than a month before the midterm elections on November 3rd, control of the United States Congress is at stake, and polls indicate a challenging scenario for Republicans, particularly in the House of Representatives, while the battle for the Senate remains much tighter.
An analysis published on October 3 by the agency EFE indicates that the elections will also serve as a test of President Donald Trump's administration, as he attempts to mobilize his voters at a time marked by high living costs, the war with Iran, and weakened approval ratings.
Next month, the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 positions in the Senate will be renewed. The Republicans currently hold control of both chambers, but their margin in the House is particularly slim.
According to the official count from the Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives updated as of October 1, the composition is 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacant seats.
National surveys currently show a Democratic advantage in the so-called generic congressional ballot, a question that measures which party voters prefer without necessarily referring to specific candidates in each district.
EFE, citing the average from RealClearPolitics, placed the Democrats on October 3 with 50.6% of voter intention, compared to 42.3% for the Republicans, a difference of more than eight percentage points.
The polls published afterward have maintained that national trend. A survey by CBS News released on October 4 placed the Democrats at 54% compared to 45% for the Republicans in the generic congressional vote.
The same study placed Trump's approval at 39%, compared to 61% disapproval.
However, a national advantage does not automatically translate into the same margin of seats, because elections to the House are decided district by district, and many of these districts are politically uncompetitive.
The Cook Political Report, one of the leading independent publications focused on American elections, believes that current trends are favorable for a Democratic gain of between five and 15 seats, a result that could leave the party with between 220 and 230 representatives in 2027.
His classification of the races for the House, updated on September 25, counted 185 seats considered solid for the Democrats and 176 for the Republicans, as well as dozens of districts classified as likely, leaning, or completely tied.
CBS News also maintains a Democratic advantage in its electoral model for achieving a narrow majority in the House, although there are still several weeks of campaigning left and the decisive races remain competitive.
The situation also reflects a common pattern in American politics: the president's party often loses seats in the midterm elections.
Trump himself lost the Republican control of the House of Representatives in 2018, during his first term.
The backdrop of the Senate, however, is considerably more complicated for the Democrats.
The Republicans currently have a majority of 53 senators compared to a block of 47 made up of Democrats and independents aligned with them. To change control of the Upper House, the Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats.
Cook Political Report currently considers the battle for the Senate essentially tied and projects that Democrats could gain between one and five seats. Reaching the upper end of that range would allow them to compete for control of the chamber, but they would simultaneously have to defend their own vulnerable seats.
The main battles are concentrated in states like Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas, according to the analysis cited by EFE.
Some recent polls reflect the closeness of several of those contests. On October 3, a survey by The New York Times/Siena placed the Democrat Mary Peltola at 50% compared to the Republican Dan Sullivan's 43% in Alaska, while in Ohio, the Democrat Sherrod Brown was at 49% against the Republican Jon Husted's 46%.
In Iowa, the same measurement showed a nearly tied race, with Republican Ashley Hinson at 48% and Democrat Josh Turek at 47%. In Kansas, Republican Roger Marshall was at 47% and Democrat Kathleen Hamilton at 46%.
Texas, traditionally one of the safest states for Republicans, has also become a focal point. EFE reported that the Democrat James Talarico had begun to outpace the Republican Ken Paxton in the average polls, while a survey by New York Times/Siena published on October 3 showed Talarico with 51% compared to Paxton's 45%.
The electoral landscape coincides with a deterioration of some political indicators for the president among groups that were important for his victory in 2024.
In September, a survey by Reuters/Ipsos indicated Trump's approval rating at 32%, the lowest level recorded by that firm during his political career, with particular concerns about the economy and cost of living.
There have also been shifts within the Latino electorate. A survey conducted in seven key states showed a recovery of Democratic support among Latino voters, with gains ranging from six to ten points compared to the result achieved by Kamala Harris in 2024.
In Florida, where Republicans have consolidated a significant political and voter registration advantage in recent years, there are also signs of greater competition emerging.
Republican leaders and strategists have acknowledged concern over the cost of living, gasoline prices, the war with Iran, and the impact of deportations among some Hispanic voters.
More recently, a survey by NBC News and Telemundo found Trump's approval among Latino voters at 27%, with high levels of disapproval regarding the economy, cost of living, immigration, and foreign policy.
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