A survey conducted by the LAPOP Lab at Vanderbilt University reveals that three out of four Cubans with internet access hold their own government responsible for the crisis facing the island, and that nearly six out of ten prefer some form of connection with the United States over an independent republic, according to an analysis published in Americas Quarterly on October 1 by political scientist Orlando J. Pérez from the University of North Texas in Dallas.
The study, conducted between June 19 and July 6 with 1,095 Cubans from the 16 provinces through an online panel by Cubadata, marks the first time that Cuba has been included in the AmericasBarometer, the most systematic comparative public opinion project in the Americas. The authors themselves caution that the sample is not probabilistic nor representative of the entire adult Cuban population — it is skewed towards younger and urban individuals with internet access — and that its results cannot be extrapolated as a national survey.
With that caution in mind, the data dismantles the regime's sovereignist narrative with a compelling clarity that is hard to ignore.
In response to the question about the best institutional future for Cuba, only 34% chose an independent republic. 30% leaned towards a status similar to that of Puerto Rico —a Free Associated State with the U.S.— and 29% opted for direct annexation. Together, 59% of respondents preferred some form of integration with Washington over full independence.
In a separate binary question, 73% prioritized economic development with foreign participation over national independence without it, while 77% demanded immediate economic changes over institutional reforms.
Pérez emphasizes that these results arise while Washington and Havana are engaged in a diplomatic confrontation at the UN that ignores what the Cuban people truly want. On September 22, President Donald Trump labeled Cuba a "failed state" before the General Assembly; the Cuban delegation left the room. Four days later, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla responded from the same podium, describing the embargo as a "relentless siege" and "collective punishment," and stating that Havana is open to dialogue. The author points out that neither side has specified what a potential agreement would entail.
One of the most politically significant findings is the perception of real power: 46% of respondents identified the Castro family as the one making the most important decisions in Cuba, even though no Castro has held formal executive positions since Raúl Castro handed over the general secretaryship of the Communist Party to Miguel Díaz-Canel in April 2021. Only 14% identified Díaz-Canel as the true center of power, and approximately one in six mentioned the Communist Party.
31% indicated that the main beneficiaries of the government's economic measures are businesses and individuals linked to the State — a description that directly points to GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls between 40% and 70% of the formal Cuban economy — while only 4% said that the beneficiaries are ordinary Cubans.
The backdrop of the entire study is the energy disaster: 86% of respondents experienced daily power outages in the month prior to the survey. On September 18, the National Electric System recorded its eighth total collapse of the year, with blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day.
These results are essentially in line with those from the independent survey of May 2026, driven by over 20 independent Cuban media outlets, which gathered more than 42,000 responses: 94% expressed great dissatisfaction with the political system, and 95% believed that citizens have no real voice in the country's decisions. While both surveys share a common rejection of the regime, their methodologies differ and are not directly comparable.
Pérez concludes that both Washington and Havana are debating "the wrong Cuba": the regime defends a sovereignty that barely a third of connected Cubans would choose, while the U.S. demands elections from a government that less than a third of respondents see as the true center of power, "in the name of a population that, above all, wants the light to return."
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