The Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera warned this Wednesday that the tropical storm Isaias, formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the early morning, could reach hurricane status in less than 24 hours, with an expected impact between the night of Friday and the early hours of Saturday on the northern coast of the gulf.
In an analysis published on his YouTube channel, the expert was emphatic: "It could be a hurricane as soon as tomorrow," and added, "Tomorrow, it will be a hurricane here, Hurricane Isaias, and it threatens to quickly become a category 2 hurricane and possibly a category 3."
Isaiah organized from Tropical Depression Nine and at the time of the analysis, it recorded sustained winds of 85 km/h, moving towards the east-northeast at 13 km/h and had a central pressure of 997 hPa, measured by reconnaissance planes from NOAA and the United States Air Force. Its center was located about 800 km southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
A continuous movement toward the east-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a shift to the northeast and north between Thursday and Friday.
In the forecast path, it is expected that Isaías will pass to the north of the Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday.
Rubiera emphasized that the intensification process was "very rapid" and that a more severe outcome could not be ruled out: "It cannot be dismissed that it may arrive as a category 3 hurricane, although the current forecast points to category 2."
The main forecasting models — the American GFS, the European ECMWF, and the German ICON — agreed in indicating the area between Mississippi and northwest Florida as the region of greatest risk, with a lower dispersion of trajectories than in previous days, which enhances the accuracy of the forecast.
Rubiera was direct in his call to the public: "The most affected area is from Mississippi to the northwest of Florida at this moment. That’s why precautions must be taken throughout this region of the United States coast. Residents here need to stay alert."
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States declared a hurricane watch from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, and a storm surge watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown.
The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and the Big Bend region.
There is no danger to Cuba
Regarding Cuba, the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) dismissed any direct threat from the system to the island.
However, Rubiera clarified that in the northwest Caribbean, a tropical wave will bring rain to the eastern region of Cuba and Jamaica. The western part will remain mostly clear with no significant precipitation.
It was noted that the hurricane's spiral bands would affect Yucatán with showers and storms, and that the coast of Campeche could experience strong swells and winds nearing tropical storm strength.
The meteorologist also alerted about a second active system: the Tropical Depression 20 in the Mexican Pacific, which threatened to turn into a category 2 hurricane and impact the states of Colima and Jalisco in the coming days.
"It is threatening to quickly become a hurricane, which will later affect areas of the Mexican Pacific coast; we will see that soon," said the expert.
He also referred to the tropical storm Rachel that is moving almost westward in the Mexican Pacific, before heading northeast towards the northern part of the Baja California peninsula.
The Gulf of Mexico recorded water temperatures between 30 and 31 °C and low wind shear, creating ideal conditions for the rapid intensification of cyclones, which supports the more severe scenario that Rubiera does not rule out for Isaías upon making landfall.
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