A new statewide poll from NBC6 and Telemundo 51, conducted by Mason-Dixon less than a month before the general elections in Florida, shows Republican Byron Donalds with a seven-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race for governor, and Amendment 3 regarding property taxes still below the necessary support to be incorporated into the state constitution.
Donalds receives 48% of the preferences compared to 41% for Jolly, while 1% supports an independent candidate and 10% remain undecided, although the difference should be interpreted within the margin of error of the survey and not as a definitive forecast for the elections on November 3.
Among Hispanic voters, the competition appears to be considerably closer: Donalds registers 48% compared to 43% for Jolly. The survey identifies respondents solely as Hispanic, so these results cannot be specifically extrapolated to Cuban voters in Miami-Dade or the rest of the state.
The information is particularly relevant for South Florida, where the Latino vote holds significant weight, and both campaigns have been working for months to consolidate support.
The state survey comes after the race between Donalds and Jolly ignited a new dispute for the Cuban vote in Florida and after the Cuban-American Bryan Avila took on a visible role within the Republican campaign.
The regional breakdown shows significant differences. Donalds leads Jolly in northern Florida, with 60% to 33%; in the central part of the state, with 55% to 33%; and in the southwest, with 57% to 33%. Jolly, on the other hand, leads in Tampa Bay, with 48% to 42%, and in southeastern Florida, where he achieves 52% to 36%.
There are also clear differences by gender and age. Donalds receives the support of 55% of men, compared to 33% for Jolly, while women favor the Democrat by 49% to 41%. Among voters aged 18 to 34, Jolly registers 48% and Donalds 46%, a narrow difference; among those over 65, Donalds reaches 51% compared to 35%.
The survey also measured the race for the federal Senate. The Republican Ashley Moody receives 50% compared to 40% for the Democrat Angie Nixon, while the independent Neil Gillespie receives 2% and another 8% of respondents remain undecided.
Among Hispanics, Moody also appears ahead, though with a smaller margin: 47% to 40%.
One of the most notable outcomes pertains to Amendment 3, which proposes increasing the homestead exemption —the tax exemption applicable to the primary residence— for property taxes that do not fund schools.
The proposal receives the support of 55% of respondents, compared to 26% who oppose it and 19% who remain undecided. Although the majority expresses support, that result is five points below the 60% required to pass a constitutional amendment in Florida.
If approved, the exemption would increase to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 for non-school taxes. The measure could reduce the tax bills of numerous homeowners, but it would also decrease the revenue that counties and municipalities receive.
The debate is particularly significant in Miami-Dade. Cuban-American officials from the county have publicly supported Amendment 3, despite estimates placing the potential revenue loss for the local government at approximately 445 million dollars annually once fully implemented. For property owners with a homestead exemption, the average estimated savings in Miami-Dade is around 1,500 dollars per year.
The survey also reveals why there is resistance to the measure: among those who support it, 49% cite the main reason as the property taxes being too high; among those who oppose it, 55% mention the fear of cuts to local services.
The survey also provides a more complex picture of Floridians' opinions on President Donald Trump. His performance is recorded at exactly 48% approval and 48% disapproval, with another 4% lacking a defined opinion.
Among the Hispanics surveyed in Florida, the evaluation is somewhat more unfavorable: 49% disapprove of the presidential management and 45% approve. This data comes just days after a national survey by NBC News and Telemundo showed a decline in support for Trump among Latino voters nationwide. These are different surveys and should not be compared as if they measured exactly the same population.
Immigration reflects another apparent contradiction among Florida voters. A 51% disapprove of the Trump administration's management of immigration law enforcement, compared to 46% who approve. However, 53% support state and local police cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), while 45% are opposed.
At the same time, a majority of 57% wants to maintain citizenship by birth as it currently exists; 20% would prefer Congress to pass a law to limit it, and 17% would support amending the Constitution to eliminate it.
The results show that the electorate can support concrete measures for migratory cooperation while simultaneously disapproving of the administration's overall approach or rejecting deeper changes regarding citizenship.
The survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy between September 28 and October 1 through live phone interviews with 625 registered voters from Florida who indicated their intention to participate in the general elections. The sample included 277 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and 134 independents, with a maximum margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
The survey was conducted before the formation of the current tropical storm Isaias, which reached this category in the early morning of Wednesday, October 7, in the Gulf of America. Therefore, any potential political, economic, or logistical impact associated with the cyclone is outside the period measured by the survey.
Although the elections are less than a month away, in-person early voting has not yet begun in South Florida. In Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, it is expected to start on October 19; however, numerous mail-in ballots have already been sent out.
With 10% of voters still undecided in the race for governor and nearly one in five voters yet to take a definitive stance on Amendment 3, the survey provides a snapshot of the contest at the beginning of October, but still leaves a considerable margin of undecided voters ahead of the elections on November 3.
Related videos:
Filed under: