The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States confirmed on Tuesday the formation of Tropical Depression Nine in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, warning of an increasing risk of dangerous winds and storm surges for the northern Gulf coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
At the time of its formation, the system recorded maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a central pressure of 1,007 mb, with its center located approximately 610 km west of Progreso, Mexico, and about 1,015 km southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The NHC forecasts that the depression will strengthen in the coming days and could become a tropical storm on Wednesday, after which it would be named Isaias.
If this trend is confirmed, the system could reach hurricane intensity on Thursday, making it the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, a season that so far has produced eight named storms without any reaching that category.
The projected path would take the system to the northern part of the Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday and to the northern Gulf Coast of the U.S. on Friday or Saturday.
Tue Oct 6: Here is the latest update on newly formed Tropical Depression #Nine from the National Hurricane Center: According to AccuWeather, the system could make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, although there is a possibility that it could reach Category 2 or 3 if rapid strengthening occurs over the Gulf. Wind shear near the coast is the main factor that could limit its final intensity.
The NHC warned that surveillance advisories could be issued as early as Wednesday, and recommended that residents in the affected area activate their hurricane emergency plans.
"Everyone, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, should stay vigilant and pay attention to this system. It could bring dangerous winds, storm surge, and rain-induced flooding to those areas," the NHC noted in a video released this Tuesday.
Regarding precipitation, the agency forecasts accumulations between three and six inches (75-150 mm) along the central coast of the U.S. Gulf from Friday through the weekend, with isolated maximums of up to 10 inches (254 mm) in some areas, increasing the risk of flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding.
The Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera had warned since Monday about the system's potential, pointing out that the most likely impact area in the U.S. extended between Mississippi and Alabama, although with high uncertainty regarding the trajectory.
The probability of the system forming increased from just 10% to 90% in less than 24 hours, reflecting an exceptionally fast organization that caught several prediction models off guard.
October is historically one of the most active months of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and the northern Gulf coast—with its low, flat topography—is particularly vulnerable to storm surges.
The NHC recommended that residents in the region monitor the forecast updates at hurricanes.gov and make sure to have their emergency plans ready before the system approaches the coast this weekend.
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