The Florida Amendment 3, the proposal that would reduce property taxes for primary homeowners, has the support of 55% of registered voters in the state, according to a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC6/Telemundo published this Wednesday.
The problem is mathematical: to be incorporated into the Florida Constitution, the measure needs at least 60% of the votes in the elections on November 3rd.
The survey, conducted between September 28 and October 1 with 625 registered voters and a margin of error of ±4 percentage points, found 26% opposed and 19% undecided, the group that will determine whether the amendment crosses the threshold or not.
For Cuban-American homeowners in Miami-Dade and Hialeah, the measure has a tangible impact: it would raise the homestead exemption —currently set at $50,000— to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028, applicable only to non-school taxes.
Florida TaxWatch estimates an average state savings of approximately $1,035 in 2027 and $2,085 in 2028, while for homeowners with homestead in Miami-Dade, the savings would amount to around $1,500 annually.
The breakdown by party reflects the polarization of the debate. Republicans support the amendment by 74% to 13%, while Democrats oppose it by 43% to 36%. Independents back it by 43% to 29%, with a striking 28% of undecided voters in that segment.
The Hispanic vote is one of the most relevant factors for the Cuban-American community: Hispanic voters support the measure 58% to 31%, above the state average. White voters also back it (58% to 22%), while Black voters oppose it 42% to 33%.
By gender, men support it 59% to 24%, and women 51% to 28%. All age groups show a majority in favor, but none reach the 60% threshold.
Among those who support the amendment, 49% cite excessive taxes as the main reason. Among those who oppose it, 55% fear cuts to local services, an argument that Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava has made the focus of her campaign against the measure: she warns that the county could lose between $390 and $445 million in annual revenue, with possible closures of up to 19 fire stations and 10 of the county's 51 libraries.
The other side of the debate impacts tenants. According to projections from the Tax Foundation, the rental property tax could rise by about $1,081 annually in 2028 for rental homes and $406 for apartments, costs that landlords could pass on to their tenants in a market where the median rent in Miami was already around $2,957 per month.
A preliminary analysis on how Amendment 3 could affect tenants outlines that risk.
In the local political arena, four Cuban-American constitutional officials from Miami-Dade publicly supported the amendment on September 28 at the Versailles restaurant: Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz, Election Supervisor Alina García, Collector Dariel Fernández, and Appraiser Tomás Regalado.
García then stated, "For me, it is an honor and a privilege to be here with all my colleagues supporting Amendment 3."
His positioning generated additional controversy: the Democratic Party of Miami-Dade demanded that García step down from the election scrutiny board claiming that there is a conflict of interest, a request that the official dismissed with a curt "there is absolutely no conflict."
Compared to the St. Pete Polls survey from mid-September, which recorded only 44.9% support, the new Mason-Dixon poll shows a ten-point improvement.
Still, the gap with the constitutional threshold remains at five points, and the 19% of undecided voters would need to lean in favor at a ratio of approximately three to one for the measure to reach 60% on the day of the vote.
The same Mason-Dixon poll measuring Amendment 3 places the Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds with a seven-point lead over Democrat David Jolly (48%-41%), in a race that will also be decided on November 3.
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