The Venezuelan-Bolivian political scientist Katiuska (Katty) Huggins argued in an interview with CiberCuba that the Cuban regime is currently experiencing its most vulnerable phase since 1959, simultaneously battered by the loss of its main allies and by U.S. pressure that shows no signs of easing.
"I believe this is the weakest moment for the Cuban regime, not only due to what has happened in Venezuela but also because of the internal issues China is facing, along with the restrictions and the ongoing war that Russia still has to deal with against Ukraine," said the analyst.
Huggins, specialized in Latin American political processes, argued that Cuba holds greater geopolitical relevance for Washington than Venezuela, because the island has served for decades as a platform for extraregional influence just 90 miles from Florida.
"Cuba, in this regard, I would say is politically much more relevant than Venezuela because Cuba has been the epicenter of communism in the region, the epicenter of all subversion in Latin American states,” he noted.
The analyst drew a direct line from the alliance with the Soviet Union to the current presence of Russia and China on the island, describing Cuban territory as "an enclave of a non-regional actor" that has kept the United States on alert for generations.
In this context, Huggins identified three factors that converge to leave the regime "quite vulnerable": the decline in Venezuelan supply following Nicolás Maduro's capture at the beginning of the year, the internal restrictions that limit China's maneuverability, and the strain that the war in Ukraine imposes on Russia.
This diagnosis aligns with the interception of the vessel M/V Grace by the U.S. Coast Guard, a container ship that was carrying hidden fuel destined for Cuba and was escorted to the Mexican port of Progreso in early October.
For Huggins, this episode is not an isolated event: "This operation demonstrates oil pressure on Cuba, where all financial trade sanctions are exerting much more pressure on the physical supply routes to Cuba."
The analyst ruled out that Washington would attempt a similar operation in Cuba to capture Maduro in Venezuela, arguing that the latter action sparked significant international criticism regarding international law.
"I do believe that now it is applying more economic diplomatic pressure to avoid having to carry out a military intervention," he specified, adding that the goal of the United States is to get the Cuban system to "disarm itself."
In this regard, he cited the warnings from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called for a democratic transition with free elections and made it clear that the regime's time to negotiate is limited.
"Marco Rubio has been very clear as well: I hope Cuba negotiates because if not, they will have to do it the hard way, and we already know that the hard way is brute force," summarized Huggins.
The political scientist also emphasized that the pressure measures are having an effect, even though the regime refuses to acknowledge it publicly: "Clearly, they are having an effect, and the regime knows that. Obviously, they won't show it because they are elites without morals, but they are indeed disintegrating."
At the conclusion of his analysis, Huggins dismissed the possibility that the historical opportunity could be lost: "Can we let the transition slip away? I would argue that we cannot; I believe they are at the critical point."
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