Democrats lead Republicans in mail-in voting in Florida two weeks before the midterm elections on November 3, a difference also reflected in Miami-Dade, where the Cuban American community has significant influence in local politics.
The latest official data shows that registered voters identifying as Democrats have returned more ballots than Republicans, although that advantage does not mean that the Democratic Party is winning the elections.
According to the statistics from the Florida Department of State, updated this Tuesday, a total of 933,867 mail ballots have been counted across the state, of which 394,962 belonged to voters registered as Democrats and 340,591 to Republicans.
The difference amounts to 54,371 ballots in favor of the Democrats, in a voting mode that has traditionally seen a high turnout of supporters of that party.
Another 175,533 mail-in votes belong to voters with no party affiliation (NPA), while 22,781 come from individuals registered with other political organizations.
The numbers have continued to grow since Monday, when the state report reflected 833,849 mail-in ballots: 354,148 from Democrats, 303,299 from Republicans, 155,962 from unaffiliated voters, and 20,440 from other parties.
At that point, the Democratic lead was 50,849 ballots. One day later, the margin had increased to 54,371, according to the latest update.
The change reflects the arrival of new ballots at the election offices, but it does not allow us to predict which of the two parties will receive more votes when the election concludes.
In Miami-Dade, one of the counties most observed for its high Hispanic and Cuban-American population, the figures show a similar trend.
As of the morning of this Tuesday, 37,538 mail-in votes from Democratic voters and 28,180 from Republicans had been counted, giving the former a lead of 9,358 ballots.
Another 22,381 votes were cast by individuals without party affiliation and 1,692 by voters registered in other organizations, for a total of 89,791 mail-in ballots.
On Monday, the balance in Miami-Dade was 32,486 Democratic ballots, 24,403 Republican, and 19,068 from voters without party affiliation. The comparison confirms that participation continued to increase during the last hours.
In the neighboring county of Broward, where Democrats have historically maintained a significant electoral presence, there is also a considerable difference.
The updated report reflects 29,669 mail-in ballots from Democratic voters, compared to 11,228 from Republicans. The advantage is 18,441 votes, not including those from independents and other affiliations.
However, there is a fundamental distinction for correctly interpreting this data: the statistics classify the ballots according to the voter's party affiliation, not according to the candidate they chose.
In a general election, a registered voter who is a Democrat can vote for a Republican and vice versa. Additionally, voters without party affiliation can support candidates from either party.
Therefore, these reports allow us to understand which groups of voters are participating, but they do not reveal the outcomes of the contests.
Caution is even more important because in-person early voting began this Monday, October 19, in Miami-Dade and other counties in Florida.
The first state report on that method presents a different picture from that of voting by mail.
As of the update this Tuesday, 69,280 Republican voters had cast their ballots early in person, compared to 68,650 Democrats, giving a slight advantage of 630 to the Republicans.
Another 28,851 participants had no party affiliation and 4,234 belonged to other organizations, bringing the total to 171,015 early in-person votes.
The difference between the two modalities is significant: while Democrats have an advantage in mail-in voting, Republicans are slightly ahead among those who have voted in person during early voting.
Historically, participation patterns have varied between mail-in voting, early in-person voting, and voting on election day. This distribution can significantly change the accumulated balance in the coming two weeks.
In fact, the results of the 2022 midterm elections provide an illustrative precedent.
According to the official statistical file of the 2022 general elections, Democrats surpassed Republicans in mail-in voting: 1,194,857 ballots compared to 1,001,229.
But the Republicans gained a much larger advantage in early in-person voting, with 1,167,529 ballots compared to 675,629 for the Democrats.
By combining both modalities, Republican voters had cast 2,168,758 early or mail-in votes, compared to 1,870,486 Democrats, a difference of 298,272 in favor of the former.
In other words, in 2022, Republicans ended up surpassing Democrats by nearly 298,000 votes cast before Election Day, despite Democrats having dominated the mail-in voting.
The comparison does not constitute a prediction for 2026, but it shows why it would be premature to interpret the current advantage in mail-in ballots as a definitive shift in Florida's electoral preferences.
In Miami-Dade, tracking participation takes on particular importance due to the political disputes affecting the Cuban-American community.
Traditionally, a significant portion of the Cuban electorate in Miami has favored Republican candidates, particularly due to their positions towards the regime in Havana.
However, this year's electoral debate is also characterized by immigration raids, deportations, and the challenges faced by Cubans with unresolved immigration situations.
The implementation of immigration control measures by the Trump Administration has generated criticism among certain sectors of the community, even among individuals who hold favorable views towards a policy of pressure against the Cuban government.
Among the concerns of certain families are deportation processes, immigration detentions, and the uncertainty faced by Cubans with documents such as the I-220A.
These concerns may influence individual decisions regarding electoral participation, but mail-in voting data does not reveal whether Cuban Americans are changing parties, why they vote, or which candidates they support.
Sociologist Guillermo Grenier, a professor at Florida International University (FIU) and head of the Cuba Poll, has noted that the economy and immigration are currently competing with U.S. policy toward Cuba among the top concerns of this electorate.
It has also cautioned that discontent with certain immigration decisions may not necessarily translate into votes for the Democratic Party, as some voters might choose to abstain.
One of the contexts where these tensions are particularly significant is Florida's 27th Congressional District, which includes Little Havana and other areas of Miami.
There, Republican congresswoman María Elvira Salazar and Democrat Eliott Rodríguez, both of Cuban descent, are competing in a race where immigration has become a key issue of debate among the candidates.
The voting behavior in areas such as Hialeah, Doral, and Little Havana will be closely monitored, although the overall figures for Miami-Dade do not allow for the isolation of the Cuban-American vote or the establishment of specific trends for each community.
While the counting of received ballots continues, voters in Miami-Dade still have several options to participate in the elections.
The in-person early voting started this Monday and will continue until November 1 at 28 designated centers in the county, from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
For those who prefer to use mail-in voting, there is an especially important date: Thursday, October 22, at 5:00 p.m., is the deadline to request that a ballot be sent.
The Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Office, Alina Garcia, reminded this Tuesday of that deadline and advised not to wait until the last moment to submit the application.
Voters can request their ballot, check their status, and obtain information about the process at the official site VoteMiamiDade.gov.
Completed ballots must arrive at the election office before 7:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3. It is not sufficient for them to have been mailed or postmarked on that day.
They can also be submitted during the early voting period at secure drop-off locations set up in authorized centers.
The postal mailing of the Miami-Dade ballots has prepaid postage, so there is no need to affix an additional stamp on the return envelope.
The electoral office also reminds voters to sign the outer envelope and review the instructions before sending in their documentation.
With early voting already underway and thousands of ballots still to arrive, the numbers will continue to change daily.
Related videos:
Filed under: