The new arrest warrant against Raúl Castro, announced on Monday by the Attorney General of Florida, James Uthmeier, is based on concrete legal grounds: the alleged involvement of the former ruler in the conspiracy that led to the downing of two planes belonging to Hermanos al Rescate in 1996.
However, his public presentation, just fifteen days before the U.S. legislative elections on November 3, also raises a political question: Could this accusation turn into a campaign tool for the Republicans, amidst the growing criticism of Donald Trump from segments of the Cuban exile community?
The order, signed on October 16 by Judge Ariana Fajardo Orshan, adds to the federal charges filed in May for the same case. Uthmeier announced it at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, in front of the families of the four victims of the attack.
The upcoming elections do not demonstrate that the procedure has partisan purposes. The investigation began months earlier and is based on activities attributed to Cuban spies operating in Florida. However, a judicial initiative can have legitimate grounds and, at the same time, provide political benefits to those who publicly present it.
Cuban Americans support the pressure on Cuba, but question other Trump policies
The support of Cuban Americans for Trump remains significant, although polls reveal substantial disagreements with decisions made by his administration.
A survey commissioned by the Miami Herald from Bendixen & Amandi International and The Tarrance Group, conducted in April among 800 Cubans and Cuban Americans in South Florida, showed that 67% supported the president's policy towards Cuba. However, only 46% approved of direct negotiations with the communist regime, while 79% supported a U.S. military intervention on the Island.
Discrepancies were greater regarding immigration matters. According to the same survey, 68% opposed the increase in deportations of undocumented Cubans without criminal records, while 81% supported the existence of legal immigration pathways for their fellow countrymen.
The difference is revealing: a significant part of the community supports pressure measures against Havana, but rejects the idea that Washington's immigration policies harm Cubans who sought refuge in the United States.
In the national context, the decline in Trump's popularity among Hispanics is even more pronounced. A survey by Pew Research Center published on October 16 places his approval rating among registered Latino voters at 24%, down from 38% in February 2025. Among Latinos who voted for him in 2024, support has fallen from 93% to 57%.
These latest figures are national and do not specifically represent Cuban-Americans, whose relationship with the Republican Party has its own distinct characteristics.
Deportations and promises regarding Cuba fuel disillusionment
The discomfort is not limited to surveys. A research piece by NPR collected by CiberCuba in early October documented the disappointment of Cuban-Americans in Miami regarding the immigration raids and deportations driven by the Trump administration.
The operations of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have reached neighborhoods with a strong Cuban presence, including Little Havana. The controversy has even reached Republican leaders such as María Elvira Salazar, who has questioned the treatment of immigrants with no criminal records.
An analysis published by CiberCuba on October 14 highlighted the warning from researcher Guillermo Grenier, associated with the Cuba Poll at FIU: the disillusionment of Cuban-American Republican voters could manifest through abstention, without necessarily translating into support for the Democratic Party.
The deportations are compounded by the frustration over the expectations created following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela on January 3. The operation fueled hope among certain exile sectors for a similar action against the Cuban leadership, spurred on by the subsequent warnings from Trump and Marco Rubio.
However, the months that have passed without an intervention, along with the reports about U.S. negotiations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as 'El Cangrejo', have created distrust among those who oppose any agreement that allows the regime to continue.
A report by Florida Bulldog, published on October 15 and reviewed by CiberCuba, documented this change in sentiment among Miami radio stations that have traditionally favored Trump.
Among the recorded interventions are former Republican supporters who question the promises regarding Cuba, criticize the deportations, and announce their intention not to participate in the elections. These are individual testimonies, not a statistical measurement, but they show that criticism has also reached media spaces historically aligned with the president.
The approach to Putin adds another contradiction
Another reason for controversy is Trump's policy towards Russia. While Washington tightens the energy blockade on Cuba and demands changes from its leaders, the U.S. president announced a oil deal with Vladimir Putin to facilitate the marketing of Russian diesel.
The decision sparked criticism due to its potential economic benefits for Moscow while the war against Ukraine continues.
Among the Cuban voices that questioned the agreement was the boxer Yordenis Ugás, who accused Trump of benefiting Russia economically while the Kremlin continues its military offensive against the Ukrainians.
The criticism has an additional dimension for the debate on Cuba: Russia is one of Havana's main international allies. The energy rapprochement between Washington and Moscow contrasts with U.S. pressure on the Cuban regime and may fuel doubts about the coherence of both policies.
There are no surveys that measure how much this issue influences the electoral preferences of Cuban Americans. The statements by Ugás and other public reactions document specific criticisms, but they do not allow for presenting them as a majority position of the exile community.
A court order under electoral suspicion
Skepticism also appears among the readers of CiberCuba. In the posts regarding the new arrest warrant, numerous comments question whether Castro, at 95 years old and residing in Cuba, will actually be detained.
In the profile of Facebook of this outlet, some label the announcement as "circus" or "theater" and explicitly relate it to the midterm elections. Others express frustration with Trump regarding his promises about Cuba and his immigration policy, while some support the judicial persecution or demand more robust measures.
Although these reactions do not represent a representative sample of the electorate, they reflect disbelief and fatigue among some commentators towards announcements they perceive as political gestures without practical consequences.
The presentation of the order in Miami, with extensive media coverage and statements from state and federal authorities, once again places the policy towards Cuba at the center of the public debate in South Florida.
During the press conference, Uthmeier stated that «there cannot be a future for Cuba that includes the Castros». The official statement from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement further emphasized the cooperation between state and federal authorities to hold accountable those responsible for the downing of Brothers to the Rescue.
The case has its own legal consequences. Since it involves a state accusation, an eventual presidential pardon for the federal crimes would not extinguish the proceedings in Florida. Although Castro remains in Cuba and his arrest seems unlikely under the current circumstances, the new order adds another avenue to seek accountability for the deaths of four individuals.
The families of the victims have been seeking justice for three decades. This demand and the foundations of the investigation do not fade away due to the upcoming elections. There is also no public evidence that the announcement date was chosen for electoral reasons.
But the judicial value of the measure does not exclude its potential political advantage. The order allows Republicans to showcase a specific action against a historical figure of the Cuban regime at a time when parts of the exile community are questioning the results of the pressure on Havana and the consequences of other Trump policies.
The question is whether this show of firmness will help regain the trust of the disenchanted or if it will be seen as yet another announcement without immediate results.
For now, the order against Raúl Castro is backed by documented legal grounds. Its potential use in elections remains a hypothesis, although the timing of its presentation and the reactions it has prompted provide reasons to scrutinize it.
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