Three out of four Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade oppose the deportation of Cubans without legal status and without criminal records, but 68% say they will vote for Republican candidates in the elections on November 3, according to the FIU Cuba Poll 2026, published this Tuesday by Florida International University.
The study, which interviewed 1,004 Cuban-American adults from Miami-Dade between September 4 and 29, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, documents a political paradox that defines this community: dissatisfaction with a specific policy of the Trump administration does not translate into a departure from the Republican Party.
76% disapproves of the increase in deportations, with 63% doing so emphatically. Only 24% supports the measure. However, this rejection does not affect electoral preferences: support for the Republican vote in Congress matches the historical high recorded in the 2024 survey.
Las deportaciones de cubanos y las políticas migratorias de la administración Trump siguen generando debate en la comunidad. Mantente al día con todo lo que ocurre en nuestra sección de
"The disappointment with the Trump administration has not displaced Cuban-Americans from the Republican Party," stated Guillermo J. Grenier, the lead researcher of the survey and a sociology professor at FIU. "Republicans still account for 53% of registered voters, although 63% of them disapprove of deportations and 50% are dissatisfied with the management of the economy."
Opposition to deportations spans all segments of the community. Among Cubans who arrived after 2020, 92% firmly oppose the policy, while only 3% support it. Additionally, 93% of non-citizens and 93% of Democrats are also against it. Even among Republicans, the group with the highest relative tolerance, 63% disapprove of deportations, although their approval rate (37%) is the highest of any subgroup.
The highest approval ratings are concentrated among migrants who arrived before 1995 (31%) and those over 76 years old (30%), groups that have historically been less vulnerable to these measures.
In parallel, 87% of respondents demand that Washington resume the processing of immigration benefits for Cubans already residing in the U.S., with widespread support: 86% of Republicans, 90% of Democrats, and 86% of independents.
This data contrasts with the migratory context described in a Human Rights Watch report from May 2026: of the 4,353 Cubans deported to Mexico between January 2025 and March 2026, 26% had no criminal record in the U.S.
The survey also reveals that the opposition to deportations coexists with strong support for pressure on the Cuban regime. Seventy-seven percent endorse the "maximum pressure" policy on Havana, sixty-five percent support the embargo on oil imports to Cuba, and seventy-three percent back U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government.
At the same time, large majorities support humanitarian measures: 73% favor unrestricted sales of medicines to Cuba, 70% support the sales of food, and 74% back assistance to the Cuban private sector to alleviate the crisis.
"Cuban Americans want two things at once: a tougher stance with Havana and a more bearable life for the Cuban people," Grenier summarized. "Those who support maximum pressure also back the sale of medicines, food, and aid to the private sector."
In the electoral races in Florida, Byron Donalds leads David Jolly in the gubernatorial race (60% to 24% among those who named a candidate), and Ashley Moody is ahead of Angela Nixon in the Senate (51% to 26%). Looking ahead to 2028, Marco Rubio tops the preferences for the Republican presidential nomination with 58%, far ahead of J.D. Vance (8%) and Ron DeSantis (7%).
This behavior contrasts with that of the Latino electorate in general: according to a FIU/YouGov survey published this Wednesday, 54.6% of registered Latinos nationwide plan to vote Democrat in Congress, with only 32.9% approval for Trump among Hispanics. Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade continue to be a structural exception within the Latino vote.
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