The battle for control of the United States Senate is entering its final stretch with several races nearly tied and polls showing varying results depending on the state and the organization conducting the survey.
Four days before the legislative elections on November 3, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio are among the most contested battlegrounds.
According to four polls by CNN conducted by the firm SSRS, Democratic candidates show advantages in Texas and Michigan, while in Maine and Kansas the differences do not indicate a clear leader.
Other polls published in recent days show narrower margins and even favorable results for the Republicans.
The uncertainty was also reflected in an analysis published on Thursday by Conservative Brief, which highlighted individual polls favoring Republican candidates in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio, although it acknowledged that other measurements present a different picture.
The variations are particularly significant because the Republicans enter these elections with a majority of 53 seats in the Senate, compared to a bloc of 47 Democrats and allied independents.
To regain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to achieve a net gain of at least four seats, without losing the ones they already hold.
The republicans, for their part, seek to maintain their majority and defend positions in states that have traditionally been favorable to them.
In Texas, two recent polls show opposing results in the race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
The CNN/SSRS poll, conducted between October 20 and 27, placed Talarico at 49% of preferences among likely voters, compared to 43% for Paxton. The survey included 923 participants and had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
However, a survey by Quantus Insights published this Friday showed the Republican slightly ahead, with approximately 49% support compared to 48% for his Democratic rival.
Both measurements illustrate the differences between the electoral studies. While CNN records a six-point lead for Talarico, Quantus displays a difference of just one point in favor of Paxton.
The average of polls from RealClearPolling this Friday placed the Democrat at 48.8%, compared to 47% for the Republican, a gap of 1.8 percentage points.
Texas gains special significance because it has not elected a Democrat to a state office in approximately three decades.
The current competition for the seat being vacated by Republican Senator John Cornyn represents one of the main contests in this election.
In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing unexpectedly tight competition against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
A poll by Emerson College published this Friday gave Hamilton 49% of the preferences, compared to 45% for Marshall. Libertarian candidate David Graham received 3%, while another 3% remained undecided.
When the pollsters asked undecided voters which candidate they leaned towards, the results showed 50% for Hamilton and 47% for Marshall.
The study was conducted between October 26 and 28, with a sample of 800 likely voters and a credibility interval of approximately 3.5 percentage points.
On its part, CNN recorded a four-point difference in that same state, also in favor of Hamilton, with 49% compared to Marshall's 45%. However, the advantage is within the margin of error of the poll.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, which explains the attention given to a race that, just months ago, seemed less competitive.
Iowa also features one of the closest races, with Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek competing for the seat that Senator Joni Ernst will leave vacant.
A poll by co/efficient, conducted on October 28 and published the following day, showed Hinson with 48% support and Turek with 46%, among 1,020 likely voters.
The difference of two points is within the margin of error of approximately 3.1 percentage points.
Other surveys conducted in October have recorded small advantages for both candidates, reinforcing the idea of a race where there is still no statistically conclusive difference.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in one of the latest polls.
The study by CNN/SSRS gave El-Sayed 49% of the preferences compared to 42% for Rogers, a seven-point lead among 768 likely voters. The measurement presented a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
The seat is a priority for the Democrats because it is currently held by their party, and they will need to defend it following the retirement of Senator Gary Peters.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson also recorded an advantage in the CNN polling, with 49% of preferences compared to 45% for Republican Senator Susan Collins.
However, the difference of four points is within the margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, so the survey does not allow us to determine with certainty which of the two candidates has more support among the electorate.
Collins seeks to maintain her seat in a state where Senate elections have produced competitive results and where the behavior of independent voters could prove significant.
Ohio is another focus of attention, with Republican Jon Husted facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in a special election.
A Suffolk University survey, conducted between October 21 and 26, placed Brown at 47% and Husted at 44%, among 500 likely voters and with a margin of error of 4.4 points.
The measurement contrasts with another from Rasmussen Reports, conducted in mid-October, which recorded 49% for Husted and 47% for Brown.
However, the average from RealClearPolling shows a lead for the Democrat, confirming that not all polls support the same interpretation of the race.
The battle for the Senate is part of an election in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 positions in the Senate will be renewed.
President Donald Trump has been actively involved in the Republican campaign, while Democrats are looking to capitalize on some voters' concerns about the economy, the cost of living, and the policies of the current administration.
At the beginning of October, an analysis of the United States midterm elections already indicated the tight race for control of the Senate, in contrast to the national voting intention trends for the House of Representatives.
In Florida, a special election will also be held to fill the seat left vacant by Marco Rubio when he assumed the position of Secretary of State.
The Republican Ashley Moody, who currently holds this position, is competing against the Democrat Angie Nixon. Recent state polls have shown advantages for Moody, although the gap between the two narrows among certain groups of Latino voters.
A survey by N+ Univision on electoral preferences in Florida placed Moody with 51% support among the surveyed voters, compared to 42% for Nixon. Among Latinos, the measurement recorded 45% for Nixon and 44% for Moody.
The contest is also of interest to the Cuban community due to the candidates' immigration positions. On Thursday, Nixon promised to promote from the Senate measures to facilitate the regularization of Cubans with form I-220A, a proposal that has been part of her electoral campaign.
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