The latest polls from The New York Times and Siena, published this Sunday, show Democratic candidates ahead of their Republican rivals in six key states for control of the United States Senate. These results are particularly striking in Texas and Kansas, two states that have not elected a Democrat to the Upper Chamber in decades.
According to the electoral research published by The New York Times and the official results from the Siena Institute, Democrats lead the preferences in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska, while in Iowa, the difference of just one percentage point represents a statistical tie.
The surveys conducted between October 23 and November 1 provide a snapshot of electoral preferences just two days before the legislative elections on Tuesday, November 3, when it will be determined which party will control the U.S. Congress.
Michigan records the largest Democratic advantage among the seven states analyzed. Abdul El-Sayed garners 53% of the vote intention compared to 42% for the Republican Mike Rogers, a difference of 11 percentage points.
It is a seat that currently belongs to the Democratic Party, and the party needs to maintain it in order to aim to regain a majority in the Senate.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico reaches 50% of preferences, while Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton registers 43%. The seven-point lead is significant because Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
The situation is also noteworthy in Kansas, where the pastor and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton receives 49% compared to 44% for Republican Senator Roger Marshall. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
In Maine, Troy Jackson shows a 51% preference compared to 45% for Republican Senator Susan Collins. The difference is six points, although Collins was able to secure her reelection in 2020 despite trailing in the polls leading up to that vote.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown receives 49%, compared to 44% for Republican Jon Husted. Brown is attempting to return to the Senate in a race that has drawn intense advertising investment from both parties.
The narrowest Democratic advantage among the six states belongs to Alaska, where Mary Peltola reports 48% of the voting intention compared to 46% for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. The two-point difference falls within the study's margin of error.
In Iowa, Josh Turek receives 48% and the Republican Ashley Hinson receives 47%. Pollsters believe that the race is nearly tied, so the difference does not provide a statistically conclusive advantage.
The new figures show changes compared to the measurements from September. Democratic candidates improved their results in six of the seven states included in the study, while Alaska was the only one where they lost ground compared to the previous survey.
The behavior of independent voters also favors Democrats in the polls. According to The New York Times, their candidates outperform Republicans among that group in the seven states analyzed, including Iowa.
The economy emerges as one of the most important factors behind the recorded preferences. Democrats lead Republicans by nine points when voters are asked which party they consider better equipped to tackle the cost of living.
The surveys also reflect challenges for President Donald Trump: only 38% of likely voters surveyed in the seven states approve of his management, according to results published by the newspaper. Opinions about the economy and the rising costs of goods are among the main sources of dissatisfaction.
However, the study also identifies favorable signals for the Republicans. Among the voters who made their decision in the last month, candidates from that party hold a nine-point advantage, while there are still undecided voters in several contests.
The control of the Senate is particularly important because the Republicans enter this election with a majority of 53 seats compared to 47 from the Democratic bloc and their independent allies. P
To regain the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats.
The new polls show Democratic candidates leading in five states currently held by Republicans: Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska. Iowa represents another opportunity for contention, although the poll results do not indicate a clear favorite.
The survey included between 610 and 1,215 likely voters per state, interviewed via phone calls.
The margins of error ranged from 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 points in Alaska, so smaller differences may not reflect a true advantage for either candidate.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Institute, noted while presenting the results that a Democratic majority in the Senate is a possibility, but he also cautioned that due to the tightness of several contests and the margins of error, either party could end up controlling the chamber after the elections.
Last Friday, other polls already indicated tight races for the Senate, with varying results depending on the polling firms.
Some measurements indicated advantages for Republicans in states where NYT/Siena now finds a favorable position for Democrats.
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