A series of polls released this Monday, less than 24 hours before the midterm elections, shows Democratic candidates leading their Republican rivals in five of the seven states that will determine control of the U.S. Senate on November 3, 2026.
The broadest survey, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College between October 23 and November 1, places the Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas. Polls from CNN and NBC News indicate the same trend, although with variations in the margins depending on the polling firm.
The largest advantage belongs to Michigan, where the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads the Republican Mike Rogers by 53% to 42%, a difference of 11 points. Following are Texas, with Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%, and Maine, where former state senator Troy Jackson is ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51% to 45%.
The most striking results, however, come from two states with long-standing Republican traditions. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%, in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. In Texas, Talarico's advantage is equally remarkable: that state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted by 49% to 44%, a figure adjusted to 50%-45% by CNN's average of polls. In Alaska and Iowa, however, the races are within the margin of error: Mary Peltola is ahead of Dan Sullivan by just two points (48%-46%), and Josh Turek is technically tied with Ashley Hinson (48%-47%). The margins of error in the NYT/Siena poll range from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 points in Alaska.
The political context weighs heavily on the Republicans. According to the NBC News average, Trump's approval rating stands at 38%, with a 60% disapproval rate. Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% in generic congressional preference. Only 17% of Americans approve of the president's management regarding the cost of living, the issue that concerns voters the most.
To regain the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, starting from a minority of 47 compared to 53 Republicans. The landscape is challenging: they must win in states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
The race in Michigan was shaken on Sunday by the unexpected endorsement of Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens for Republican Rogers, triggering a record-breaking fundraising day for El-Sayed: $2.4 million in a single day, contributed by over 65,000 donors. "This historic fundraising is a testament to the enthusiasm that Abdul's movement has inspired in the hearts of the people of Michigan," stated the campaign spokesperson, Cole Wozniak.
Both Trump and the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, rejected the validity of the polls. "They can ignore the polls. The polls are wrong all over the country," Johnson said at a rally in Dubuque, Iowa. Trump, for his part, outlined his strategy in the event of a potential defeat: "I think we're going to do very well, but if we don't win, I will veto everything."
Experts warn that polls underestimated the Republican vote in 2016 and 2024, and that last-minute decision-makers this year lean toward candidates from the president's party, with a nine-point advantage among those who made their decision in the last month, according to NYT/Siena. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Institute, emphasized that either party could end up controlling the chamber, given the tightness of several races.
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