Almost ten months after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, the Cuban government remains in power despite the tightening of U.S. sanctions, the interruption of Venezuelan oil supplies, and the worsening energy crisis on the island.
An analysis published by Newsweek on November 2nd, authored by David Averre, examines why Donald Trump's strategy has not managed to cause an outcome in Cuba similar to that of Venezuela.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS); Michael Bustamante from the University of Miami; and Sebastián Arcos from Florida International University (FIU) explain the differences between the two political systems and the obstacles Washington faces in achieving change in Havana.
More economic pressure, but no political results
Since January 2026, the Trump administration has intensified economic restrictions against Cuba.
The measures include the interruption of Venezuelan oil supply, threats of tariffs against countries that provide fuel to the island, and new sanctions against officials, state-owned enterprises, and foreign companies linked to the Cuban government.
The economic and energy consequences have been severe. According to Newsweek, the national electrical system experienced at least six partial or total collapses between January and September, while power outages exceeded 24 hours in some areas of the country.
However, the deterioration of living conditions has not resulted in the political concessions that Washington expected.
The government of Miguel Díaz-Canel maintains control over the institutions and continues to reject American pressures.
Chancellor Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla has defended the Cuban government's willingness to withstand pressure for as long as necessary.
For her part, Cuba's Chargé d'Affaires in Washington, Lianys Torres Rivera, pointed out in October that there are channels of communication between the two countries, but no formal negotiations.
Why Cuba is not Venezuela
One of the main differences noted by specialists is the structure of political power in both countries
Michael Bustamante, historian and director of the Cuban Studies Program at the University of Miami, emphasizes that Cuba operates as a single-party system, while Venezuela maintained formally multiparty institutions and political spaces during Maduro's government.
In Venezuela, the opposition achieved a significant electoral mobilization in 2024, although the official result was challenged and the Maduro government was accused of manipulating the elections.
After the capture of the leader in January 2026, his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed power and established cooperation mechanisms with Washington.
In Cuba, there is no equivalent figure within the ruling elite who can take command and negotiate a similar transition.
There is also no opposition with institutional representation comparable to that of Venezuela.
Sebastián Arcos, director of the Cuban Studies Institute at FIU, also emphasizes the differences between the two systems.
In his view, the political and institutional control exercised by the Cuban regime makes it much more difficult to replicate the Venezuelan scenario.
The departure of Díaz-Canel or even Raúl Castro would not necessarily ensure a change in political direction.
The structure of the Communist Party, the Armed Forces, and the security agencies could allow for the continuity of the system under different leaders.
Washington's strategy: pressure and attrition
Arcos interprets the measures of the Trump administration as a combination of intimidation and economic pressure aimed at weakening the Cuban government and encouraging potential fractures within its power structures.
The strategy aims to increase the costs of maintaining the current system by restricting resources and reducing the chances that Havana will find new sources of funding and supplies.
However, economic pressure alone does not guarantee a political transformation.
Experts warn that the resilience of the Cuban state apparatus and the lack of a clearly identified alternative power complicate any attempt to replicate the operation carried out in Venezuela.
The strategic patience of Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended a policy of sustained pressure, without committing to an immediate collapse of the Cuban government.
In August, Rubio stated that Cuba was headed toward a different future before the end of the Trump administration.
He also explained that Washington would continue to block the mechanisms used by the Cuban government to ease the economic restrictions.
“Every time they find a way out, we close it off”, he stated at the time.
According to Bustamante, this bet on strategic patience has caused concern among some of Rubio's supporters in Miami, especially among those who are hoping for more decisive measures against Havana, including a possible military intervention.
The U.S. administration, however, faces obstacles that go beyond the resistance of the Cuban government.
The war with Iran changed the calculations regarding Cuba
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, acting director of the Americas Program at CSIS, believes that the war with Iran has substantially altered the possibilities of a U.S. operation against Cuba.
The conflict forced the relocation of military resources that had been deployed in the Caribbean and heightened the political risks of a new intervention, especially if it did not yield a swift outcome like that achieved in Venezuela.
The difference between the two scenarios is significant: the operation against Maduro allowed for the establishment of a cooperative relationship with a part of the Venezuelan government, while in Cuba, Washington lacks an equivalent interlocutor to ensure institutional continuity under new political conditions.
During an event in Florida on October 23, Trump once again suggested that Cuba was among his next targets and mentioned sending Rubio to reach an agreement once the U.S. ships returned from the region of Iran.
But the presidential statements have not been accompanied by an operation comparable to the one executed in Venezuela.
While Washington continues its pressure campaign and Rubio bets on long-term attrition, the Cuban government maintains political control.
According to the specialists consulted by Newsweek, the strength of their control mechanisms, the lack of a successor willing to cooperate with the United States, and the risks of military intervention explain why Maduro's downfall has not had the same outcome in Havana.
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