The Cuban-American Republican congressman Mario Díaz-Balart is on track to retain his seat in the House of Representatives for Florida's 26th district following a much more competitive race than expected against Democrat Nicole Locklin. According to the provisional official results from Florida, Díaz-Balart garnered 114,547 votes (49.87%), compared to Locklin's 112,775 votes (49.10%): a lead of just 1,772 ballots.
The independent candidate Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey received an additional 2,348 votes (1.02%). The Republican's lead is approximately 0.77 percentage points and is still pending certification. Florida's legislation mandates an automatic machine recount when the difference between candidates is equal to or less than 0.5% of the votes cast; based on the provisional figures reviewed, this race remains above that threshold.
The new electoral map tightens a victory that seemed certain
The redesign of District 26, approved this year, removed parts of Collier County and incorporated areas from southwestern Broward, which has a higher presence of Democratic voters. The district retains neighborhoods from Miami-Dade such as Hialeah, Doral, and Miami Lakes, where Díaz-Balart has built a significant part of his electoral support.
The territorial contrast was decisive: Locklin led the Republican by approximately 22 points in the Broward area, while Díaz-Balart enjoyed a similar advantage in Miami-Dade, according to data collected by the Miami Herald. In 2024, the congressman had won by nearly 42 points, although he was competing under different district boundaries at that time.
Locklin, a 38-year-old lawyer and first-time congressional candidate, managed to put a seasoned legislator with over two decades of experience in Washington on the defensive. Moreover, she did so with significantly fewer resources: by mid-October, she had raised around $600,000, compared to the $2.76 million of the Republican campaign, according to election reports cited by the newspaper.
Trump backed him, but immigration defined the campaign
Díaz-Balart, 65 years old, has held a federal seat since January 2003 and is one of the most influential Republican congressmen in Florida. Days before the vote, President Donald Trump publicly called for his re-election and described him as "a proven leader". The legislator has also supported Washington's maximum pressure policy against the Cuban regime.
However, the immigration policy revealed differences with the White House. During the campaign, Díaz-Balart described part of the immigration raids as "exaggeration" and advocated for an individual review of the situations of immigrants with open legal cases. While he supported Trump's border security measures, he also called for relief for certain groups of Cubans, Venezuelans, and Nicaraguans.
Locklin focused his campaign on the cost of living and housing in South Florida, in addition to proposing the elimination of ICE and an expansion of legal immigration pathways. The significant difference between the results in Broward and Miami-Dade highlights the impact of electoral geography, but on its own, it does not allow for attributing the narrow margin to a single campaign issue or a specific group of voters.
A tight election amid the Democratic advance
The result of district 26 comes after an electoral night of significant Democratic gains in Congress. Although the Republican Party held its ground in several contests in Florida, the narrow margins in the southern part of the state contrasted with their much broader victories in previous elections.
In the neighboring district 27, María Elvira Salazar declared victory against the Democrat Eliott Rodríguez in another extremely close race, while Carlos Giménez projected a victory in district 28. The three Cuban-American congresspersons entered the election looking to maintain their representation of Miami and South Florida in Washington.
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