Despite the Democratic victory in the legislative elections on November 3rd, analysts consulted by AP agree that Cuba will remain a top priority for the Trump administration during the remaining two years of its term, and that the new balance of power in Congress will not significantly alter the maximum pressure policy against the island.
The most decisive signal came just 48 hours after the elections: Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced new sanctions against the Cuban regime, designating eight entities and two individuals, and blocking five ships.
Among those sanctioned is Guillermo Faustino Rodríguez López-Calleja, brother of the late General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, for his involvement in a network of shipping companies dedicated to the transportation of Cuban crude oil.
Experts' analysis suggests that the Democratic Congress—which will not take control until January 3, 2027—will have legislative oversight tools such as hearings and investigations, but it will not be able to reverse executive sanctions or lift the embargo, which requires legislative action under the Helms-Burton Act.
Christopher Sabatini, from the Chatham House research center, anticipates that the Democrats will push for hearings on oil agreements with Venezuela and advocate for elections to be held in that country, but he does not foresee any significant relief from the pressure on Cuba.
The professor Orlando J. Pérez from the University of North Texas offers an additional reading on Rubio's motivations: "A Secretary of State with presidential ambitions has every incentive to seek a quick outcome in Cuba."
José Briceño, a professor at the Center for Research on Latin America and the Caribbean in Mexico, deemed a military operation against the island "unlikely, given the complexity and risks," although he clarified that no one wants to rule it out entirely.
Trump himself compared the ideology of the Cuban regime to that of the Democratic Party during an appearance at the White House on Monday, describing Cuba as “a nation that is failing” and predicting that it will “fall quite soon.”
Rubio, for his part, reaffirmed from Paris —where he was participating in the G7 foreign ministers' meeting— that Washington will do "everything it can" to guide Cuba toward a better future, although he conditioned any progress on the regime "waking up and understanding that there is no future in the path they are currently following."
Miguel Díaz-Canel responded on Tuesday with a defiant message, rejecting any interference: "The future of Cuba will never be decided in the north."
Another indicator of continuity was the appointment of Stephen Miller —the chief architect of Trump's tough immigration agenda— as the new White House Chief of Staff, a position he assumed on Monday.
In August of last year, Rubio had already warned that Cuba was on an "irreversible path toward a very different future" before the end of the Trump administration, citing Poland as a model for transition of three to five years.
Since January 2026, the administration has implemented more than two dozen rounds of sanctions against the regime, affecting over 40 entities and at least 38 individuals linked to the structures of the Cuban military-business apparatus such as GAESA and CUPET.
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