The MLC, the virtual currency used by the regime in its increasingly scarce stores dedicated to it, surprised this Friday with a sudden increase of five pesos in the informal foreign exchange market in Cuba compared to the previous day.
The freely convertible currency, which many economists and citizens believe is doomed to disappear, began this May 30 valued at 265 CUP.
Otherwise, there are no changes for the dollar and the euro in their average selling value announced by elTOQUE in its daily report.
The US dollar continues to be sold at 370, and the euro at 395 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
But be careful, the Median Value that documents the movements of the last 24 hours shows increases in both currencies.
The median reveals selling values for the dollar at 375 and for the dollar at 400 CUP, the latter value being very close to the record that the European currency reached in May of last year.
Exchange rate today 05/30/2025 - 9:21 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 265 CUP.
Equivalents of each available euro and United States dollar bill to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of May 30:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
EUR 1 = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1,975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
This week it was revealed that the Observatory of Coins and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that - they claim - allows for highly accurate predictions of the movements in the informal currency market on the island, especially regarding the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media detailed that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy in its predictions regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the principal researcher of the project, "forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to buy foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, captured through artificial intelligence from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The aforementioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and in December 2024, following statements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero about a possible floating exchange rate.
There were also significant errors between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect," and following government announcements that sharply altered expectations.
Despite this, in 2025 the accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of only 1.8% in the first four months.
The OMFi indicates that, although the exchange rate has remained within the expected minimum and maximum range in 43.5% of the months, when it has deviated, it has done so with an average difference of only 5.3%.
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