Social explosion of 11-J: What changed for Cuba and Cubans?

Cuba lived a social emergence on July 11, 2021 what definitively marked the course of its history. The popular demonstrations of that Sunday day that spread through more than 70 cities, towns and territories of the country made it possible to make visible to the world the outbreak of a population exhausted by endless shortages and tired of empty promises, and also to hear the cry of a generation that He rebelled against hopelessness.

Has Cuba changed enough to advocate a before and after 9/11? Did the overwhelming protests and their immediate aftermath provide a path towards the democratic transformation of the Cuban nation?

Accustomed to prolonged entrenchment of the Cuban situation and to the repressive resources of the regime To overcome the difficulties and silence the demands of citizens, the prognosis of a radical change from the totalitarian system to an open and plural society is always difficult to determine. I don't think anyone would venture to set a date for that essential turning point in Cuba, but what both the social explosion in those glorious hours and the two years that have passed since then have made clear is that The Cuban people do not want less than what their contemporaries demand in all latitudes: well-being and rights, facilities to decide their destiny without government interference and opportunities to earn a decent life as fruits of their personal efforts, those signs that make up the true face of freedom.

I risk some observations based on the testimonies and heartbeats I receive from a country that is destined to reform itself from within sooner rather than later, with the imprint of the protagonists of 9/11. These are five intentional considerations about what changed in Cuba with this act of patriotic manliness that moved us all, inside and outside the island.

1- The country became more ungovernable and the power more fragile. It is obvious that the Cuban regime responded with brutal repression and unleashed summary trials against participants in the protests, imposing severe prison sentences on more than 700 defendants. We know what he is willing to do to support himself. But the discredit of government figures and institutions worsened on a large scale. Governing is increasingly difficult for the hierarchy, made evident by their inability and impudence in leading the country, and their popular disapproval. The situation took the government leaders by surprise, who saw before them the magnitude of the rejection, without any subterfuge. In fact, government measures and decisions are still clumsy, but they try to be cautious. Because the ingredients for the explosion have remained on the ground.

2- The younger generation assumed its historical role. Although the demonstrations included people of all ages, the decisive voice and action came from young people, including numerous minors. It was the most massive anti-government reaction in six decades and the resounding proof of the new generations with the outdated official discourse. Unlike the Maleconazo protest, which occurred 27 years earlier, 11-J was overflowing with images and cries for freedom in real time on social networks, which prevented government propaganda from distorting the spontaneous and popular nature of the mobilization, or attributing it to “isolated demonstrations” of small groups and criminals.

3- A shakeup in the international community. The fact that the protests had wide coverage with the use of cell phones and social networks served to create a true global commotion about the events, as well as the repression ordered to quell the revolt. The dark call of Miguel Díaz-Canel from the Palace of the Revolution giving the “combat order” to pit Cubans against Cubans is an image that cannot be erased as a symbol of despotism. An extremely dangerous step, because as my colleague has expressed Dagoberto Valdes In a prescient editorial from 20 years ago, “he who closes the door to peaceful change opens the door to violence.” (Stained glass, May-June 2003). At the level of democratic governments and international organizations, and even for some sympathizers of the regime, the vision of Cuba suffered an indisputable collapse and forced them to reconsider certain approaches and perceptions about the Cuban panorama. At the same time, the activism of Cuban exiles and pro-democracy activists in favor of Cuba has seen a resounding revival around the world.

4- The awakening of the dissatisfied. The wave of 11-J influenced thousands of Cubans who, out of fear, exhaustion or apathy, remained silent or inactive regarding their disagreements with the government, or remained on the critical margins of the system, but without transgressing what was publicly permissible. Not anymore. The clumsiness derived from the failed Ordering Task, the confinement of the pandemic and the overwhelming shortage of food and medicine detonated in the July marches. And they encouraged an uncovering of frontal opinions, a hive of disagreement. In any public place, through social networks, Cubans seem determined to no longer remain silent about their misfortunes. The protest is a latent phenomenon that has been escalating since then in university centers, in front of government institutions, in towns hit by blackouts, in neighborhoods without water and full of garbage. The government knows that it decides its permanence on a tinderbox.

5- Stampede, exile and depopulation of the country. Since the first years of Fidel Castro's revolution, the strategy to decompress an internal crisis has been to half-open the floodgates of mass emigration. In the case of leadership opponents, the path of prison and exile have been routine options. 11-J was the trigger for another episode of stampede and expulsion. Government he wasted no time after imprisoning and judging disaffected. Once the borders were open, the exemption of visas for Cuban travelers by the Nicaraguan government, in November 2021, was the first escape valve, with marathon departures of Cubans to then head towards the Mexican border. At the same time, the most visible heads of an opposition movement that was beginning to articulate itself with firmness and civility were forced to leave the country under threat of going to prison. Only to the United States The largest irregular exodus of Cubans in history is recorded, with a total of more than 410,000 arrivals during Joe Biden presidency. The figure is close to half a million when the more than 25,000 immigrant visas granted and the 40,000 authorized cases of humanitarian parole are added. The Cuban population on the island has been drastically reduced, with a substantial loss of its young people. Cuba is losing population and aging at a rapid pace.