The Miami-Dade County, long considered a stronghold of the Democratic Party, has officially shifted to the Republican Party regarding active voter registration, marking a milestone in Florida's political landscape. This change solidifies the Republican advantage in 59 of the state's 67 counties.
On Monday, media outlets such as Politico reported that the Republican Party had gained an advantage in active registrations in Miami-Dade, with 464,370 Republicans compared to 440,790 Democrats, and 460,783 voters classified as “others” (unaffiliated or from minor parties). This shift was driven by a cleanup of the voter roll that removed over 172,000 inactive voters.
However, later that same day, the Miami-Dade Elections Supervisor's Office (SOE) clarified that Democrats still outnumber Republicans when considering the total number of registered voters, including both active and inactive:
Democrats: 555,524
Republicans: 514,538
Non-affiliates / Others: 562,967
What does it mean to be an "active" voter?
The key distinction lies in the category of "active voters," which refers to those who have voted or interacted with the electoral office in the last two general election cycles. In that category, Republicans lead with:
Active Republicans: 449,337
Active Democrats: 414,680
No active affiliates: 417,144
Meanwhile, a considerable number of voters were classified as "inactive" for not having participated or responded to notifications in the past four years:
Inactive Democrats: 140,844
Inactive Republicans: 65,201
No inactive affiliates: 145,823
According to Iván Castro, spokesperson for the Miami-Dade County Public Schools, any action such as signing a petition, making a call, or showing up to vote can return a citizen to "active" status. Only after another four years of inactivity are they removed from the rolls.
However, Governor Ron DeSantis highlighted the turnaround as an unthinkable event a decade ago. "Ten years ago, Miami-Dade was a deeply democratic county with hundreds of thousands more democratic voters than republicans. Today, with over 2.8 million residents, it has a republican advantage in voter registration. No one would have predicted this."
For his part, Evan Power, president of the Republican Party of Florida, celebrated the event as “the culmination of the work that so many Republicans in Florida and Miami-Dade have accomplished in recent years.”
In a similar tone, Senator Rick Scott proclaimed: “Miami-Dade is officially RED!”
This electoral shift occurs after two key events: the reelection of DeSantis in 2022, when he won the county by 11.3 points, and the victory of Donald Trump in 2024, who achieved a margin of 11.4 points in the same territory.
With an eye on the upcoming 2026 elections, the Republican Party hopes to conquer new territories. Currently, they are assessing progress in Duval County (D+1.55) and Palm Beach (D+3.6), where they could replicate the strategy that has proven successful in Miami-Dade.
The shift in the most populous county in the state not only disrupts the local political balance but could also have profound implications for the 2028 elections, especially in a state deemed critical for reaching the White House.
Frequently asked questions about political change in Miami-Dade
How has voter registration changed in Miami-Dade?
The Republican Party has surpassed the Democratic Party in the registration of active voters in Miami-Dade. This change is significant as Miami-Dade has historically been a Democratic stronghold. Now, there are 449,337 active Republican voters compared to 414,680 active Democratic voters. This shift has been driven by a cleanup of the voter roll that removed over 172,000 inactive voters.
What does it mean to be an "active" voter in Miami-Dade?
An "active" voter is one who has voted or interacted with the electoral office in the last two general election cycles. Being classified as active means having taken some action such as signing a petition, calling, or showing up to vote. Voters who have not participated or responded to notifications in the last four years are classified as "inactive."
What impact does the political change in Miami-Dade have on future elections?
The political shift in Miami-Dade could have profound implications for the 2028 elections. Miami-Dade, being the most populous county in Florida, is critical for the political balance of the state, which is in turn key for the presidential elections. This shift towards the Republican Party could influence the strategy of both parties in future elections.
What factors have contributed to the change in voter registration in Miami-Dade?
The change in voter registration has been influenced by several factors, including internal and external migration. Despite an internal exodus of residents due to the high cost of living and other factors, the county has offset this loss with a high level of international migration, primarily from Latinos. This, along with the purging of the electoral roll, has contributed to the change in voter registration.
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