The Cuban regime is manipulating the people again by promising that there will be fewer blackouts in the summer, nurturing the hope for a better future.
However, daily reality presents a different story: a power deficit exceeding 1,600 megawatts (MW) during peak nighttime hours and prolonged, uneven power outages across different regions.
According to the official newspaper Granma, the regime is working on a “gradual” strategy to restore the electrical system, although officials from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) acknowledge that, in the short term, blackouts will not decrease.
The regime's goal for the summer is to reduce the outages to an average of four hours per day per customer, increasing generation by 13 GWh and controlling the growth of consumption.
However, the opposing factors are not few: the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) forces many households to cook with electricity, increasing consumption.
According to the regime's spokesperson portal, when the power returns after a blackout, the simultaneous connection of multiple devices creates a spike in current that can be up to 15 times higher than normal consumption, causing the collapse of transformers that have already been deteriorated due to overuse.
In a single recent day, ten transformers collapsed in Havana, and in this regard, Granma pointed to the importation of equipment as the culprit.
From 2018 to 2024, the island has imported over 17 million appliances, motorcycles, refrigerators, and other equipment that rely on electricity.
This has generated a sustained increase in demand that the electrical system is not able to support.
On the other hand, the scheduled outages of thermal units for maintenance and the lack of fuel will continue to impact the supply.
Currently, the installed thermal generation capacity in the country amounts to 1,993 MW, but it is estimated that only 1,120 MW will be available in July, slightly increasing to 1,160 MW in August. Official data clearly indicate an energy crisis.
This figure is well below national demand, which early in the morning already matches that of the day, exceeding 3,000 MW; in other words, the Cuban electrical system operates with less than half of what it needs.
The First Deputy Minister of Minem, Argelio Jesús Abad Vigoa, explained that currently 15 thermal units are operational, but some of the most important ones are out of service or require urgent interventions.
Immediate plans include the recovery of Felton 2, Mariel 7, Nuevitas 4, and Renté 4, with a commitment to reintegrate 550 MW into thermal generation.
At the CTE Carlos Manuel de Céspedes in Cienfuegos, complete maintenance has just been completed on unit 3, which was intervened for the first time in 14 years.
Nevertheless, work on the boiler remains pending, as its economizer has been in operation for five decades and has recently caused outages due to tube collapses.
At the same time, unit 4 of that plant is undergoing major maintenance, just like other units in Mariel, Santa Cruz del Norte, and Renté.
The Antonio Guiteras and Felton 1 will also have brief interventions before summer to minimize the risk of failures, although the Guiteras will need to go out again at the end of the year for a major repair.
The regime insists on highlighting the advances in solar energy, although it admits that they are inadequate. Despite the project to install 2,000 MW of photovoltaic energy, once all planned solar parks are completed, its generation will still be lower than the thermal capacity lost since 2019.
It is expected that by January 2026, 51 solar parks will be synchronized, contributing a total of 1,115 MW, but this figure represents only a fraction of the total needed.
In addition, there are technical limitations: solar energy is intermittent and cannot guarantee the stability of the electrical system, nor can it initiate black starts.
To mitigate these variations, 200 MW of storage has been contracted, which is expected to arrive this year, according to another promise from the regime.
As of the end of April, the country had 1,020 MW installed in distributed generation, of which about 200 MW have been recovered so far in 2025.
However, several engines remain out of service and the fuel supply continues to be a constant risk factor, which predicts a bleak future.
Energás Varadero, for example, has its gas unit 3 and steam unit 4 out of operation, with their reinstatement expected in June and July, respectively.
In addition, actions are being taken at the gas wells in Boca de Jaruco to increase daily production to 2.3 million cubic meters and deliver 8.3 GWh to the system.
The recovery of Felton 2, one of the regime's major projects, will require at least two and a half years of work, with an estimated investment of 70 million dollars.
Beams are being processed in Las Tunas, and the importation of metal resources and aggregates is being managed to complete the project.
Meanwhile, Cubans continue to deal with prolonged blackouts that vary between provinces, and with a quality of life deteriorated by the instability of the supply.
Although the official discourse insists that progress is being made towards structural solutions, the reality is that the figures reveal an insufficient generation, medium-term plans that do not address the present, and a population that is increasingly skeptical of promises that are repeated every year.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Energy Crisis in Cuba
What is the Cuban regime's goal for blackouts during the summer of 2025?
The Cuban regime has set a goal to reduce blackouts to an average of four hours per day per customer by the summer of 2025. This goal is established within a context of electrical deficit and a strategy that aims to increase generation by 13 GWh, although it faces multiple challenges such as a shortage of liquefied petroleum gas and the deterioration of transformers.
What are the main problems facing the Cuban electrical system?
The Cuban electrical system faces issues of generation deficit, infrastructure deterioration, and fuel shortages. The installed thermal generation is far below national demand, and the country suffers from a lack of maintenance on thermal units, absence of replacement parts, and a decline in domestic crude oil production. This has resulted in prolonged blackouts and instability in the power supply.
What role do renewable energies play in Cuba's energy crisis?
Renewable energies, especially solar energy, have been promoted as part of the solution to the energy crisis in Cuba, but their impact is limited. Although there are plans to install solar parks to generate 2,000 MW, their capacity is intermittent and cannot guarantee the stability of the electrical system. Additionally, the lack of storage systems reduces their effectiveness during peaks in nighttime demand.
What measures is the Cuban government taking to improve the energy situation?
The Cuban government is working on the recovery of thermal units and the expansion of solar energy. Maintenance has been planned for several plants and the incorporation of solar parks. However, these plans do not guarantee an immediate solution to the crisis, as the electrical system continues to operate at less than half of the necessary capacity and with aging infrastructure.
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