La Unión Eléctrica (UNE) forecasted for this Wednesday, May 21, a maximum impact of up to 1,770 MW during the peak nighttime hours, as a result of a severe generation deficit in the National Electric System (SEN).
With an estimated demand of 3,500 MW and availability stagnating at only 1,800 MW, the country will face another day marked by severe blackouts that are prolonged and widespread across the national territory.
The UNE confirmed that the service was affected for 24 hours on Tuesday and that this morning brought no relief either.
Despite this, and in apparent contradiction to citizen testimonies and the forecast made the day before by UNE itself, official data reported a maximum impact of only 1,465 MW during the previous night.
This figure, published on the official Facebook page of the entity, differs from the institutional report issued on the website of UNE, which reported affectations of 1,565 MW at 10:00 PM.
This inconsistency has been met with skepticism and outrage by a citizenry that, for weeks, has been reporting blackouts lasting between 18 and over 30 hours in multiple municipalities across the country.
Through thousands of comments on social media, Cubans from Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Camagüey, Granma, Holguín, and Ciego de Ávila have documented continuous blackouts, power supply of only two hours a day, and a routine of insomnia, spoiled food, and unbearable heat.
System at its limit and without relief in sight
According to the technical report, as of 7:00 a.m. today, the national electric system had a capacity of 1,800 MW against a demand of 2,950 MW, which already resulted in a deficit of 1,107 MW.
By noon, a demand of 1,250 MW is expected, and the nighttime peak will be the worst time of the day if UNE's projections are met.
The main causes of the collapse include breakdowns in unit 3 of the CTE Cienfuegos and in unit 2 of the CTE Felton, five units out for maintenance in Santa Cruz, Nuevitas, Cienfuegos, and Renté, and 289 MW inactive due to thermal limitations.
This is compounded by a lack of fuel, which keeps 43 distributed generation plants out of service, and an additional 97 MW are halted due to a lack of lubricating oil, raising the total loss due to this cause to 380 MW.
Although the 12 new solar parks generated 1,233 MWh on Tuesday, this production remains marginal compared to an overwhelming national demand. Without a structural solution or sufficient investment in sight, the blackout is no longer a contingency: it has become the new normal.
Amid contradictory figures and an exhausted population, the perception is rising that official reports do not reflect the true magnitude of the Cuban energy collapse.
Today, just like yesterday, the country will once again grow dark, as the numbers are adjusted... but reality will not.
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