In recent hours, the dollar took a step back and returned to 370 CUP, a figure it has predominantly maintained for several weeks.
The US dollar is undergoing another adjustment following a temporary and brief increase in the dollar price to 372 pesos on Saturday, seemingly influenced by the controversial announcement from ETECSA to impose restrictions on mobile top-ups in Cuban pesos and new dollarized services.
Although ETECSA's announcement led some to anticipate that the value of the U.S. dollar might skyrocket, that has not been the case for now.
In the last few hours, there have also been changes in the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which rises again to 265 CUP, according to the daily report from elTOQUE.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Only the euro remains unchanged, still priced at 395 CUP.
Exchange rate today 05/30/2025 - 9:21 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 370 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 395 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 265 CUP.
Equivalences of each available banknote of euros and US dollars to Cuban pesos (CUP)
United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this June 2nd:
USD 1 = 370 CUP.
USD 5 = 1,850 CUP.
USD 10 = 3,700 CUP.
USD 20 = 7,400 CUP.
USD 50 = 18,500 CUP.
USD 100 = 37,000 CUP.
EUROS (EUR)
1 EUR = 395 CUP.
5 EUR = 1.975 CUP.
10 EUR = 3,950 CUP.
20 EUR = 7,900 CUP.
50 EUR = 19,750 CUP.
100 EUR = 39,500 CUP.
200 EUR = 79,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 197,500 CUP.
Last week it emerged that the Cuban Observatory of Coins and Finance (OMFi), an entity associated with elTOQUE, has developed a methodology that -they claim- allows for highly accurate predictions of the informal currency market movements on the island, especially concerning the dollar.
An article published by the aforementioned independent media specified that thanks to the use of artificial intelligence and econometric models, the OMFi has achieved a 94% accuracy in its predictions regarding the value of the dollar.
According to economist Pavel Vidal, the lead researcher of the project, "the forecasts are useful for a wide range of economic actors," from citizens who need to buy foreign currency for remittances or travel, to entrepreneurs who import products and need to protect their margins against market volatility.
The key to the model is the use of real-time data, captured through artificial intelligence from social media and digital platforms where dollars, euros, and MLC are traded.
The mentioned source revealed that this informational advantage has significantly reduced the uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate.
Factors that hinder predictions
The analysis of OMFi shows that the exchange rate in the Cuban informal market is highly volatile and sensitive to speculative and political factors.
One of the most critical moments occurred in August and September 2023, when banking measures were announced, and again in December 2024, following statements from Prime Minister Manuel Marrero about a possible floating exchange rate.
There were also significant errors between May and June 2024, amid the so-called "herd effect," and following announcements from the Government that sharply altered expectations.
Despite this, by 2025, accuracy has improved, with an average margin of error of just 1.8% in the first four months.
The IMF indicates that, although the exchange rate has remained within the minimum and maximum range expected in 43.5% of the months, when it has deviated, it has done so with an average difference of merely 5.3%.
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