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Colorado State University (CSU) recently reaffirmed its forecast that the current hurricane season in the Atlantic will be more active than usual, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 of high intensity (categories 3, 4, or 5).
The information was published by meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, the lead author of the report, on the social media platform X, where he explained that the main factor contributing to this above-normal season is the behavior of sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which remain well above average.
Additionally, he pointed out as an important factor the likely absence of the El Niño phenomenon during the most active months of the cycle, between August and October.
Both conditions create a more favorable environment for the development of tropical cyclones, as the winds that typically cut or weaken these formations are reduced.
The report warns that the expected cyclonic activity represents 125% of the average recorded between 1991 and 2020, with an estimated 155 points of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE).
This value measures the combined intensity and duration of storms.
In particular, it is expected that 56% of that activity will have the potential to impact the Caribbean, a particularly sensitive piece of information for countries like Cuba, which are still dealing with the structural and economic effects of the cyclones from the 2024 season.
The report also references previous years with similar patterns: 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021.
In many of them, especially destructive hurricane seasons occurred in the Caribbean and the southeast United States.
Although no specific trajectories or impact zones are projected, researchers emphasize that it only takes one storm making landfall for the entire season to be deemed critical.
Professor Michael Bell, another of the study's authors, reminded us that prevention and preparedness are essential: “It only takes one storm near you for you to consider it an active season.”
In the case of Cuba, where the deterioration of the housing stock, evacuation systems, and the availability of food and water are increasingly fragile, the risk goes far beyond meteorological concerns: it is human and structural.
Experts from CSU will publish new forecast updates on July 9 and August 6. In the meantime, they urge coastal communities to stay informed and prepared, reminding them that an active season does not always mean many storms, but it does entail a greater risk.
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
How many storms and hurricanes are expected in the 2025 hurricane season?
17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes (category 3 or higher) are expected, according to Colorado State University. This forecast is above the historical average and indicates a more active season than usual.
What factors contribute to an active hurricane season in 2025?
The main factors contributing to an active hurricane season in 2025 are the Atlantic Ocean temperatures, which are well above average, and the likely absence of the El Niño phenomenon. These conditions create a favorable environment for the development of tropical cyclones.
What is the risk of hurricane impact in the Caribbean and Cuba during 2025?
There is a 56% chance that cyclonic activity will impact the Caribbean, and a 50% chance that an Atlantic hurricane will enter the Caribbean Sea. In the case of Cuba, the risk of impact is high due to the deterioration of its infrastructure.
What are the recommendations for preparing for the 2025 hurricane season?
It is essential to have an emergency plan, identify evacuation zones, stay informed through applications like FEMA, and follow the instructions of local authorities. Preparation and prevention are key to mitigating the impact of storms.
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