The National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) alerted about the high probability that a tropical depression will form in the Gulf of Mexico this Saturday afternoon.
In a recent update on their website, the entity reported that the activity of showers and thunderstorms is beginning to show signs of organization. If these trends continue, it is likely that a tropical depression will form, possibly this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche.
It is forecasted that this system will continue moving towards the west-northwest this weekend towards the east of Mexico, and will eventually move inland on Monday.
According to the NHC, tropical storm warnings or watches could be issued for the Mexican Gulf coast on the afternoon of this Saturday.
The probability of formation over the next 48 hours and up to seven days is high, at 70%.
According to the Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez, an active tropical wave has been generating areas of showers, rain, and disorganized thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean Sea and Yucatan.
However, only strong and intense rains are expected in Belize, Guatemala, and the southeast of Mexico, and it poses no danger to Cuban territory.
The island is currently covered by mid and high-level clouds, as well as hazy skies, due to concentrations of Sahara dust.
For this Saturday, isolated showers, rain, and thunderstorms are expected in the west.
According to Ruisánchez, although the presence of Sahara dust in the lower layers of the troposphere is reducing precipitation processes, there is still some humidity in the atmosphere which, along with intense warming and local factors, favors downpours, rainfall, and thunderstorms.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual. NOAA has predicted up to 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Colorado State University also anticipates an active season with 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes. The warming of the Atlantic Ocean is a key factor in this forecast.
Frequently asked questions about cyclonic formation in the Gulf of Mexico
What is the likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico?
The probability of forming a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico is 70% over the next 48 hours and remains high for the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center of the United States has issued an alert regarding this situation due to the organization of showers and thunderstorms in the region.
What impact will the tropical disturbance have on Cuba?
According to the Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez, the tropical disturbance poses no threat to Cuban territory. The island is currently under the influence of Saharan dust, which limits rainfall and keeps the skies hazy. However, some isolated showers are expected in the western part of Cuba.
What effects could Sahara dust have in Cuba?
The Sahara dust can reduce air quality and create hazy skies in Cuba. While it decreases the likelihood of precipitation, the dust can also impact individuals with respiratory issues and allergies. It is essential for the population to take precautions to mitigate these effects.
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