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In a new and surprising turn, the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) updated its forecast on Thursday for the 2025 hurricane season, which runs until November 30, warning that there remains a high probability of above-normal activity.
According to the report published on the official site of the agency, between 13 and 18 named storms are now expected, of which between 5 and 9 could develop into hurricanes, including up to 5 of major intensity (category 3 or higher).
As of today, four tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes.
Storm Chantal was the first to make landfall in the U.S., causing strong winds and deadly flooding in the Carolinas during the Fourth of July weekend.
Among the factors contributing to the intensification of this season are warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, as well as an active western African monsoon.
In addition, neutral conditions persist in the ENSO phenomenon, which means that neither El Niño nor La Niña are directly influencing it.
"The updated forecast should be seen as a wake-up call. It is essential to prepare now, before a warning is issued," emphasized Laura Grimm, interim administrator of NOAA.
The agency estimates a 50% probability of an above-average season, a 35% chance of it being normal, and only a 15% possibility of it being below average.
These figures match with the initial forecast released in May.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, reminded that “no storm is the same as another” and that each system can produce different threats both in coastal areas and inland.
The NOAA forecast focuses on the overall activity of the season, not on specific impact events.
The trajectories and potential impacts can only be accurately anticipated days before a possible impact.
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic
How many storms and hurricanes are expected for the 2025 hurricane season?
Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected, of which 5 to 9 could develop into hurricanes, including up to 5 of significant intensity (Category 3 or higher). These numbers reflect an increase in cyclonic activity compared to historical averages, primarily due to warmer ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions.
Why is a more active hurricane season than usual predicted for 2025?
The 2025 hurricane season is more active due to warmer than usual ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, as well as an active West African monsoon. Furthermore, the neutral conditions of the ENSO phenomenon (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) are not limiting cyclone development, which favors the formation of storms and hurricanes.
What impact could the 2025 hurricane season have on the Caribbean and the United States?
The 2025 hurricane season has significant potential for impact in the Caribbean and the United States coast. There is a 56% probability that one or more intense hurricanes will make landfall in the Caribbean and a 51% probability along the U.S. coast. These figures are higher than the average values of recent decades, highlighting the importance of preparedness for potential cyclones.
What recommendations does NOAA make regarding the 2025 hurricane forecast?
NOAA urges communities in vulnerable areas to prepare in advance. The updated forecast should be seen as a call to action, as it is crucial to be ready before a specific warning is issued. Preparation includes reviewing emergency plans, securing homes, and staying informed about weather updates.
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