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The Cuban Institute of Meteorology reported that the 2025 hurricane season in the North Atlantic will be active, with the expected formation of 11 tropical storms for the remainder of the period, of which seven could reach hurricane category.
The forecast, updated on August 4, warns of a high probability of impacts in the Caribbean and in Cuba. According to the meteorological report, seven of the storms will develop in the Atlantic, one in the Gulf of Mexico, and three in the Caribbean Sea.
The probability of at least one hurricane originating in the Caribbean is 85%, while the risk of an Atlantic-origin hurricane entering this region reaches 70%.
In the case of Cuba, the likelihood of being impacted by a hurricane is 50%, and the chance of a tropical storm is even higher.
"The danger of Cuba being impacted by at least one hurricane is high, with a 50% probability, which exceeds the country's climatological risk of 35%. Even greater is the danger for Cuba that at least one tropical storm will affect it, with a probability of 70%," the center wrote.
Between June and July, the tropical storms Andrea, Barry, and Chantal had already formed, with Dexter joining them on August 3. All were short-lived and had no impact on national territory.
Specialists indicate that the current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, such as surface sea temperatures warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, along with a neutral equatorial Pacific, favor the formation and strengthening of cyclones in the region.
According to the report published by the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) on the official website of the agency, it is now expected that there will be between 13 and 18 named storms, of which between 5 and 9 could develop into hurricanes, including up to 5 of major intensity (category 3 or higher).
“The updated forecast should be seen as a call to action. It is essential to prepare now, before a warning is issued,” emphasized Laura Grimm, acting administrator of NOAA.
The agency estimates a 50% probability of a season above average, a 35% chance of it being normal, and only a 15% likelihood of it being below the usual.
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025 Hurricane Season in Cuba
What is the probability that Cuba will be impacted by a hurricane in 2025?
The likelihood of Cuba experiencing the impact of a hurricane during the 2025 hurricane season is 50%. This percentage is higher than the usual climatic hazard for the country, which is 35%. Furthermore, the risk of a tropical storm affecting the island is even greater, with a probability of 70%.
What factors are influencing the intensification of the hurricane season in the Atlantic?
The warmer-than-usual temperatures in the surface waters of the Atlantic and the Caribbean are key factors contributing to a more active than normal hurricane season. Additionally, the neutral phase of the ENSO phenomenon (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and a stronger West African monsoon are aiding in the formation and intensification of cyclones in the region.
How many storms and hurricanes are expected in the 2025 cyclone season?
Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, of which between 5 and 9 could develop into hurricanes, including up to 5 of significant intensity (category 3 or higher). These figures are above the historical average and indicate a high level of cyclonic activity.
How does climate change affect the hurricane season in the Caribbean?
Global climate change is contributing to rising ocean surface temperatures, which in turn increases the energy available for tropical cyclones. This phenomenon promotes the formation and strengthening of more intense storms, heightening the risk of severe impacts in vulnerable regions such as the Caribbean and Cuba.
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